“The ball is tipped…”  The opening words to ” One Shining Moment” are so inspiring this time of year.

Tomorrow tips off the premier day for college basketball. Day 1 of the NCAA tournament. Long lunches, streaming videos on computer work screens, and even a “sick” day will all be common occurrences as The Big Dance gets underway.

Before diving into the college basketball bracket, here’s a few quick points that stand out about Selection Sunday :

Virginia Tech basketball fans were left out of the NCAA tournament despite a 23-8 (10-6) record

Any Hokie fan who jumps on the “raw deal”  bandwagon led by Dickie V should know that Virginia Tech’s resume of wins include : #249  NC Greensboro, #254 Delaware (in ot) , #275 Brown, #304 Charleston Southern, #317 VMI, #318 MD Baltimore County, and #338  North Carolina Central . This collection of wins is a main part of the reason Virginia Tech is non conference strength of schedule ranks an abysmal 318th (all ratings by kenpom.com). After being left sitting on the side with a glass of punch while everyone else is dancing in the middle for the second straight season maybe Seth Greenberg will get the memo : PLAY TOUGH TEAMS…

Mississippi State listens to T and 2 but doesn’t turn out well

Opting to follow the sacred belief that fouling up three is always a good thing, Mississippi State basketball fans saw a rare occurrence. Kentucky was able to in fact hit the first,miss the second, get the rebound and score to force overtime. Readers were quick to email asking, ” Still believe you should foul up three ? ” To which I responded, ” Name me any other time you’ve seen that happen.” Aside from Sunday’s miracle….no one had ever seen fouling up three come back to haunt someone. So the T&2 still strongly supports the theory.

Duke leapfrogs Syracuse to get #3 overall seed.

I’m a Duke fan, and I’m still not sure I can support this.

*-If you’re wondering as to why Duke gets the play-in game but Kansas is the #1 overall seed, it’s because Kansas’s first round site plays on Thursday and the NCAA gives the play in winner two days before their first round game. Since Kansas and Kentucky (the #2 overall seed ) both open up on Thursday, it was shifted down to Duke who opens up on Friday.

West Virginia and Ohio State win conference tourneys but it doesn’t help

I was pretty sure that watching the West Virginia and Ohio State basketball communities celebrate as conference champions this weekend meant it had helped their seed. After seeing the brackets released, I quickly wondered how things had gone so wrong. Based on the logic that the strongest 1 seed plays the weakest 2 seed, Ohio State basketball fans  should have a serious gripe that they are ranked 8th overall according to the bracket. Paired in a region with the tournament favorite Kansas Jayhawks, the Buckeyes are at a huge disadvantage. In addition to Kansas, a likely Sweet Sixteen date with Georgetown is not picnic either.

De’Sean Butler was thrilled to be wearing a championship t-shirt (which was thankfully spelled correctly this time) Saturday night, but I imagine he was just as displeased on Sunday night, seeing that his Mountaineers squad was paired with #2 overall Kentucky. I cannot fathom how winning The Big East, clearly the country’s best conference, tournament can push you to #7 overall. Looks like it will be up to Butler’s heroics and Bob Huggins to take down John “never actually been to a Final Four” Calipari, John “one and done” Wall and Kentucky.

Now for the brackets.

Midwest Region

First Round

Kansas – Lehigh -

Advice to any Lehigh parents or Lehigh basketball historians in attendance : If Lehigh jumps out to a 2-0 lead to open the game take a picture of the scoreboard, you’re going to need proof to show your kids you were actually ahead in this game. Kansas in a blowout.

UNLV-Northern Iowa-

The Mountain West Conference seems to be the conference to make the most noise in this year’s dance, but Northern Iowa has been on our radar since January. Northern Iowa is the pick.

You’ll never find the  T and 2 picking against Michigan State basketball and guru Tom Izzo in the First Round.

Love Houston’s story, and the spark of Brooklyn’s Zamal Nixon off the bench but Gary Williams, Grevais Vasquez and Maryland prevail.

Bruce Pearl’s 5-4 NCAA tournament record is as suspect as his suit choices. In a top heavy bracket like this, San Diego State is the best bet to shake things up. It makes even more sense to take a risk on the Aztecs when looking at second round foe Georgetown who would roll over Tennessee anyway. Take a chance on Steve Fisher to find some more NCAA magic, but don’t pencil them in any further than the second round.

James Anderson (22.6 ppg ) is the stud for Oklahoma State basketball, and Derrick Favors (12.5 ppg, 8.5 rpg) is a stud for Georgia Tech. Take your pick on who will outshine the other… The T and 2 likes Oklahoma State to win.

Surf’s up on Saturday for UC Santa Barbara on Saturday after a first round Friday night loss to Ohio State and Evan Turner, who will mostly likely “hang ten”…..actually “hang 30″ the way he scores.

Second Round

Rock Chalk Jayhawk as Kansas rolls over Northern Iowa, likely meeting Maryland, who takes down a crippled Michigan State squad, in the Sweet Sixteen.

No hesitation by the T & 2  to pencil Georgetown and Ohio State into the Sweet Sixteen.

Sweet Sixteen

I’ve praised Maryland basketball recently for becoming an elite team this season, mostly in part to Grevais Vasquez’s amazing play, but a matchup vs Kansas clearly becomes : great player vs great team. We will always take the great team. Kansas is the pick.

Can you say slug fest? Georgetown and Ohio State are two teams who can really defend and slow things down. Aside from the get it go play of Evan Turner, this game will be interesting to watch unfold. Unlike the Kansas-Maryland match up, G-town and Ohio State matched two similarly talented teams separated by Ohio State’s Evan Turner. When looking at a match up of equal teams, we’ll always predict the best player to decide things late. Ohio State to the Elite Eight.

Regional Final

Evan Turner is phenomenal but Kansas is loaded. Despite a loaded region, Kansas should return to the Final Four.

West Region

No Taylor Coppenrath heroics can ruin this one. Syracuse advances despite the loss of Arinze Onuaku.

A West Coast Conference Championship game loss to St.Mary’s seriously cost Gonzaga basketball a better seed. Under seeded as an 8, expect a Gonzaga romp over Florida State coming from a weak ACC.

Butler has won 20 in a row.UTEP won 16 in a row before being knocked off by Houston in the Conference USA championship game. Both teams come into the clash hot, but look for UTEP’s front line of 6-11 Arnett Moultrie, 6-11 Claude Britten, and leading man 6-9 Derrick Caracter to cause the undersized Butler team trouble. UTEP in an upset special.

Not overly-impressed by Vandy, but love the fact that Murray State’s top six scorers average 10.6, 10.5, 10.4, 10.4, 10.3, and 9.5 ppg. The Racers clearly share the ball and will likely share a victory. Murray State to the second round.

Xavier sends home Minnesota,an overrated Big Ten team ….SHOCKER.

The Oakland Zoo of Pitt gets the best of Oakland.

BYU crushes Florida, and Kansas State takes care of North Texas.

Second Round

Don’t think Syracuse and Jim Boeheim will just walk  into the Sweet Sixteen. Gonzaga was a top ten team in January and aside from inexcusable losses to San Fransisco, and Loyola Marymount. The Zag’s other four losses are all to NCAA tournament teams :Michigan State, Wake Forest, Duke,and a recent blowout from St.Mary’s.  The real question is which Gonzaga team will show up ? With Syracuse down a man, the core of Matt Bouldin , Elias Harris and Steven Gray could make under seeded Gonzaga a real sleeper here, but I’m still not confident they will get everything together. Syracuse escapes.

UTEP continues it’s run into the Sweet Sixteen over Murray State’s balanced attack.

No Levance Fields to take the last shot this time. Xavier gets revenge eliminating Pitt and Jamie Dixon who deserves much credit for everything he’s done with a team supposedly “rebuilding” .

It’s very simple. The winner of the BYU-Kansas State game is going to the Final Four. BYU’s offensive (12th) and defensive (21st) efficiency pop off the page for a 7 seed, but Kansas State’s offensive (16th) and defensive (19th) numbers are impressive as well. Jimmer Fredette is something to watch for the Cougars, but Jacob Pullen of Kansas State can stroke it too. I’m itching to pick BYU, but Kansas State seems to have the extra notch but I won’t be shocked if BYU pulls it off.

Sweet Sixteen

Syracuse fans should be thrilled to see 12 seed UTEP as a Sweet Sixteen matchup. Onuaku should be healthy by this time, and Syracuse picks up the win.

Xavier is never one to be an easy out so expect a dogfight here vs Kansas State, but put K State on your next line.

Regional Final

This year’s bracket is extremely top heavy. Aside from 2-3 teams, the true title contenders are the 1-3 seeds, so do not rule out a 2008 repeat of all 1 seeds in the Final Four. I don’t see it happening this year as Kansas State takes down Syracuse.

If you’re really hot on Syracuse, take note to the fact that since Syracuse’s 1996 Championship game appearance, Boeheim has seen his Orange squad in the NIT 4 times(twice in the last 3), lose in the NCAA first round 3 times(2 of the three in 05, and 06), lose in the second round once,  make 4 Sweet Sixteens and capture a National Championship(2003).  One begins to wonder if Carmelo Anthony had gone straight to the NBA, how quickly could we call Jim Boehiem a tournament underachiever ?  It’s worth pondering when looking at the Orange’s injured center, and roadblocks of Gonzaga, and Kansas State.

South Region

Duke’s second five could beat Arkansas Pine Bluff.

Cal was actually my pre-season favorite to make the Final Four. T & 2 reader Nolan Adams has done his best to continue to remind me of that every chance he gets. On paper, the Bears looked and still look like a good team. A disastrous stretch early doomed them. With all that talent, I would expect a win over Louisville as a nice way to salvage the season.

Not good that Texas A&M is matched against Utah State in Spokane, which gives the underdog a big advantage. Will be extremely close but look for a year of Big Twelve wars under their belts to allow Texas A&M to escape.

Can a 13 seed actually be favored to win ? Seems like it as everyone and their mother is taking Siena…me included. The Saints will need Ryan Rossister to be extremely efficient inside for the upset.

A conference rarely runs the table in the opening round, even a conference as good as The Big East. Look for Notre Dame to be the second causality as Old Dominion pulls off the upset. The Big East still comes out overly impressive with a 6-2 record over the first two days.

Baylor takes down Sam Houston State with ease.

The selection committee gets an eyebrow raise from me after seeing two quality mid majors, Richmond and St.Mary’s, paired together. To me it makes sense to switch up this 7-10 match up with the 7-10 Oklahoma State- Georgia Tech game of two major conference teams. Why not mix up the two ? We’ll never know if it was the committee’s intention or if they really don’t like seeing mid majors succeed.  Aside from the seeding gripe, this game is going to be one to watch. St.Mary’s is hot off a spanking of Gonzaga, and Richmond comes flying out of the A-10. Kevin Anderson is the key here, the Richmond point guard is truly special. Watch him take this one over.

Villanova and Jay Wright (likely seen with his flashy suit and shiny hair)  send Robert Morris home.

Second Round

Duke joins Syracuse as a 1 seed with a scary 2nd round game. Regardless if it’s California, or Louisville they will be facing, Duke will be challenged. I think it will be Cal, who I feel is very talented with a good back court of Jerome Randle and Patrick Christopher. Duke is playing at their best, and I think they will survive….barely.

Texas A&M downs Siena but this will be closer than expected.

Baylor knocks off Old Dominion.

The Richmond “Spiders” will not just be getting drinks for Tommy, Henry and Jimmy in this tournament. Expect them to be “made men” after an upset of Villanova. For everything you expect Scottie Reynolds to do for Nova’ expect Anderson to do the same if not more. He’s that good. Richmond to crash the Sweet Sixteen.

Sweet 16

Brian Davis and David Loubeau are each 6’9 and will challenge the Blue Devils inside, but expect Duke’s shooting to let them live another day.

The Big 12 this year is what the Big East was last year. Baylor keeps boosting the conference’s resume with an Elite Eight appearance knocking off Richmond.

Regional Final

Duke’s already hated in college basketball. It’s what’s happens in all of sports. People hate the Yankees, people hate the Cowboys, people hate Duke, and the Yankees, Cowboys, and Duke all know it. The fact that Duke got the easiest road only adds to the hatred, but I advise you to put that hatred aside when predicting this year’s tournament because Duke is a different team. They don’t have a go to star like Evan Turner or De’Sean Butler, but they have the best trio in the country. Another stat to consider is Duke’s efficiencies.  

Duke currently ranks 2nd and 5th in Offensive and Defensive efficiencies respectively. The only other team who ranks in the top 5 in both categories this season…Kansas. The last time Duke ranked in the top 5 in both categories ? 2004…..the last time Duke appeared in the Final Four. I’m a Duke fan, but even if you’re not…these numbers speak volumes. Kyle Singer, Nolan Smith, John Scheyer-face and Duke head back to the Final Four.

East Region

Kentucky slams East Tennessee State.

I guess someone has to win Texas vs Wake Forest, although based on how awful each have been this season I wouldn’t be surprised if both lost. Texas is the pick.

I consider Jay Bilas the best analyst in all of college basketball, but his plan to put Cornell in the Sweet Sixteen is a little bit of a stretch in my mind. I also think Cornell is likely to be picked by a large number of people, so selecting Temple is a value pick.

Bo Ryan and Tom Izzo’s consistency to running successful programs are the only thing that makes the Big Ten tolerable. Wisconsin defeats Wofford.

Big East is great, Marquette lives in close games, Pac Ten stinks…seems pretty simple.

New Mexico easily takes care of Montana.

ACC struggled this year, with disappointing Clemson as the “they were suppose to be good” poster boys of the conference. Missouri uses Big 12 experience to will out an ugly one.

Bob Huggins can bring out his most comfortable sweat suit because this one will be an easy win for West Virginia.

Second Round

Kentucky vs Texas as a second round matchup. I never would have guessed this in January..you know when Texas was actually winning games. Kentucky and John Wall cause Rick Barnes to walk off the court shaking his head wondering where he went wrong and not stop for the next three months.

Bo Ryan’s NCAA Tournament record = 11-8.  Fran Dunphy’s NCAA Tournament Record = 1-11. Wisconsin with the win.

Expect close games from Marquette throughout the tournament, and Marquette knows it. Aside from a blowout loss to Georgetown, and a blowout win over Lousiville. Marquette’s 5-1 in their last six games which have all been decided by no more than 4 points, including 4 that have gone into overtime (Marquette is 3-1 in those games). New Mexico will keep it close…but that may actually help Marquette.

West Virginia dismisses Missouri.

Sweet 16

Only two Final Four teams have been ranked outside the top 25 of both Offensive and Defensive efficiencies in the last 6 seasons. Both occurred in 2006 when George Mason and LSU each snuck in. Aside from those two, the formula for a Final Four is simple, be ranked in the top 25 of both categories. Kentuky is ranked in both(OE-18 DE-11) , but so is Wisconsin (OE-13, DE-7). I think John Wall’s too good, and Kentucky wins but do not be shocked if Wisconsin takes this one. I’m still on the fence….

The Big East has been “anyone beats anyone” type of conference all year, and there’s no denying West Virginia owns the best player on the floor in De’Sean Butler, but Lazar Hayward and Jimmy Butler are damn good too. Marquette wins a tough game close….which is becoming their specialty.

Regional Final

Want nothing more than to root against John Calipari but his group of one and dones are too good. Not bright…but good. Kentucky does “The John Wall Dance” into the Final Four.

Final Four

Get ready to hear “how hard it is to beat  team 4 times”, it will most likely be during Kansas’s celebration after the defeat Kansas State….for the fourth time.

2005 was the last NCAA Championship I can remember two absolute dominant one seeds meeting in the Final. Illinois took on UNC and everyone pretty much saw it coming.

1999 was another year where it was only a matter of time before the two powers of the tournament, Duke and UCONN, decided the title.

This year looks extremely similar. Kansas and Kentucky are better than every other team in this bracket…by  a big margin. Everything about placing them in the NCAA Championship Game makes sense.

The one thing that makes me hesitate is that I can’t see Calipari getting to a title game and then losing it again. I believe that there’s only a certain amount of times a coach  can get his team close and lose before he eventually wins. Think about it. It was true for Boeheim, it was true for Roy Williams, and it was true for Bill Self. I think if Kentucky gets to the Championship, the theory comes true for John Calipari. So it seems logical to pick Kentucky, although I just can’t seem to pick Kentucky after watching how dominant Kansas is. I think everything is in the cards for them to take home the title, and I’m confident they will.Which is why I pick Duke to knock off Kentucky, and Kansas to be the 2010 NCAA National Champions.

Evaluating the picks

After examining credible criteria for recent NCAA Champions and Final Four teams, I found the most consistent stats  are :

Final Four teams ranking in the Top 25 in Offensive and Defensive Efficiency

My picks of Kansas (OE-1 DE-4),  Kentucky (OE-18 DE-11), Duke (OE-2 DE-5) and Kansas State (OE-15 DE-17) all stack up to the criteria.

Champions have 3 future pro’s

Gary Parrish is the biggest advocate of this theory. After researching the last 40 NCAA champions Parrish found that one NCAA Championship team had less than three players to play in the NBA at some point. The team was 2003 Syracuse.

My pick of Kansas has three future first rounders according to mock drafts.

• Champions are 1 seeds

Sounds silly but dating back to 1985 (the tourney’s expansion to 64) 16 of the past 25 (64 %)  NCAA Champions have been #1 seeds including the last three years.

Good luck with your bracket. Enjoy the games and as always foul up three.

Coaches Get On Board With the T & 2

Finally ! Finally ! Finally ! Yes, I screamed that three times in the past week while watching   Rutgers upset Georgetown, the Celtics beat the Kings, and, most recently, Syracuse knock off Georgetown. Why was I so excited about an awful NJ school, an elderly team whose fans have awful accents, and a whiny coach who won’t play man to man ? Simple. In the final seconds, THEY ALL FOULED; UP THREE….and of course… THEY ALL WON .

I couldn’t believe it. I was elated. As the texts from T and 2 readers like James Alberino, John Strange, Jon Snediker and Bill Hassett rolled in throughout the week, I just kept smiling.  By the time Syracuse hacked up three, I had perfected the Judd Nelson-Breakfast Club fist pump.

Clearly, coaches are coming around on what I find to be the simplest decision in sports. Based on the easy logic that it’s harder for your opponent to : hit the first free throw, miss the second, get the rebound, and then score; than it is to simply hit a three pointer. Hats off to Fred Hill, Doc Rivers, and Jim “whine about expansion even though he’s headed for a #1 seed this year” Boeheim for showing some logic. Now we’re waiting for John Thompson III, who just watched the theory burn him, not once but twice, to start hacking late.

Texas Basketball a Season Long Roller Coaster Ride

Rick Barnes must be pretty confused trying to figure out what exactly is going on with his team. After a 17-0 start, the Longhorns are 3-6 in there last nine; dropping to 6-5 in Big 12 play. While Barnes is probably trying to convince himself it’s just a rough patch for a talented team, he may want to look a little closer at exactly what his squad has done this year…which, by my account, isn’t much.

Texas is very talented and has a clear superstar in Damion James so, there’s no question
as to whether they have the talent to play with the best, its just a matter of actually beating the best. However, the Longhorns have struggled to do that this year. Barnes’ squad has impressive wins over #11 Michigan State, #21 Pittsburgh and #23 Texas A&M but losses to #7 Kansas State, UCONN, #22 Baylor, #1 Kansas, and Missouri; proving that the Longhorns are not an elite team, which is what everyone in the country wants to be heading into March.
Trips to A&M and Baylor, with a fine showing in the Big 12 Tourney may be what James and company need to change their elite status, but don’t expect it. The T and 2 is expecting to cross Texas off with a second round upset in the Big Dance.

Who Are The Elite Teams In NCAA Basketball?

In order of most expected to win a title by the T and 2 : Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, West Virginia, Duke, Villanova, Kansas State, and Gonzaga. It’s an eight team race, and if you’re
wondering why Purdue is not on the list, look no further than the fact that they play in the snail’s pace Big Ten. Ohio State and future pro Evan Turner may be the only team who can change that belief but, until now, we’re sticking with those eight, with Kansas and Kentucky as clear favorites to meet in the final.

Bracket Busters Take Center Stage

This weekend is a time for hoopsters to educate themselves. ESPN is promoting its Bracket Buster weekend, which gives fans a chance to get an early look at teams you’ll be thankful you watched once March rolls around. Some of the games and teams you need to see : 
Friday- Old Dominion (21-7) at Northern Iowa (23-3), Cornell (21-4) at Harvard (17-5)
Saturday: Siena (22-5) at Butler (24-4), Morgan State(20-8) at Murray State (25-3) 4 PM,
UTEP (19-5) at Tulsa (19-7) (CBS-CS) 11:59 PM, Wichita State (22-6) at Utah State (21-6 )(ESPN2).

The T and 2 is most intrigued by Northern Iowa (currently a 7 seed in Bracketology) Butler (6 seed in Bracketology) and Murray State (12 seed in Bracketology). Questions to ask yourself while watching : Is Northern Iowa good enough to be knock off an overrated two seed in the second round ? Is Butler as good as it current winning streak indicates ? Can Murray State pull off the virtually annual “12/5″ upset ?

Time for These ACC Basketball Fans to Cross Their Fingers

Duke : Good news Blue Devils faithful , just five more games and Duke has officially survived February, a month that’s haunted them in recent years.

Maryland : At 18-7 (8-3) and one of Joe Lunardi’s last four teams in the tourney things look solid for the Terps. The final 5 vs Georgia Tech, Clemson, @ Virginia Tech, Duke, and @ Virginia will be the deciding factor. T and 2 estimates that a 3-2 or 4-1 stretch will cement them as tourney worthy, anything less and it’s time for James Lopez and fans to begin worrying…or moping… whichever you prefer.

Virginia Tech : Currently 21-4 (8-3) the Hokies are currently seeded as a #11.  Eleven?!  Why ? Very simply, a non-conference, strength of schedule rated a dismal 332nd by kenpom.com . VT will need to grab an impressive win(or wins) over Duke,Georgia Tech or Maryland down the stretch or it will watch it’s seed fall even further. Don’t feel too sorry for them though, as this is the team that scheduled such “powerhouses” as Charleston Southern, Maryland- Baltimore County, and Longwood in a three game stretch around the holidays. Clearly “gift” wins.

Just three weeks until Selection Sunday….a national holiday here at the T and 2.

Rivalry Week Signals Shift of Focus For Sports Fans

For all you football fanatics out there,  make sure you savor the Super Bowl, because as of this morning, it’s time to focus on hoops.  Despite the endless analysis, highlights and “breakdown” sessions  ESPN may have shoved down your throat last week, you should be beside yourself about the slew of college basketball games coming up over the next seven days. Rivalry Week, as it’s become known, is easily the best single week of the regular season. It’s like the best appetizer on the menu. You make sure you order it. Things start on tonight on ESPN’s  Big Monday when Kansas(1)  travels to Texas (10) and Villanova (2) travels to West Virginia(6).

Kansas, in my opinion, is the best team in the country right now.  Granted, they won in OT last week at Kansas State on the heels of an absurd decision by Wildcats’ head coach Frank Martin; (with just a few seconds difference between the shot clock and game clock, Martin chose not to foul Kansas, instead letting the possession play out), and they barely beat the Colorado “praying for the NIT” Buffaloes by six in overtime.  While these wins aren’t pretty…they are wins, and they are wins that will be similar to how Bill Self’s squad will need to win in March;  wins where you get the one stop you need at the end of the game, or a win where you don’t play well but gut it out.  This factor has now become the icing on the cake as to why I think Kansas will be champions.  They have the skill (Collins, Henry, Aldrich),  the coach (Self) and the X factor: Efficiency.  Another gutty win vs Texas would only cement the fact that they have the final piece of the puzzle, a will to dominate  an opponent when it matters most. Look for Kansas,  who still has to win a trap game vs Nebraska on Saturday,  to trump Texas as they continue to separate themselves from the pack.

The Pick:Rock Chalk Jayhawk

#6 West Virginia vs. #2 ‘Nova- The best way to describe West Virginia is to think of an Adam Sandler movie after 2002. You know he’s always been great in the past, and the trailer for the new flick looks decent, but you know there’s a possibility to be completely let down. (i.e. 50 First Dates, Longest Yard, Funny People).  Enter Bob “sweat suits on the sidelines” Huggins and West Virginia.  The Mountaineers are 18-3 (7-2), with losses to Big Ten power # 7 Purdue, a hiccup to 16-7 Notre Dame, and a 1 point loss to #4 22-1 Syracuse. WVU also gets the T and 2 love because they rank at 4 and 24 in O and D efficiency respectively. Now while West Virginia has some impressive numbers, the amount of quality wins WVU has is what alarms us. Yes, the Mounties did beat #18 Ohio State, and 16-6 Texas Tech isn’t shabby, but they have just one quality Big East win(Pitt).  WVU begins a brutal stretch on Monday vs Nova, and still has a trip to Pitt, Georgetown and a trip to Nova on the schedule. It will be these four games where we find out how legit the Mountaineers really are. An 0-4 skid and you can dismiss them as a Final Four team, a 4-0 mark means we’d better watch. My prediction is 3-1, starting with a win on Monday.  Youngster Daryl “Truck” Bryant will have his hands full defensively with Scottie Reynolds, but the eyes of Devin Ebanks and Kevin Jones should light up against Nova’s “inferior interior” duo of Antonio Pena and Taylor King.  Simple rule for WVU: hold Reynolds to less then 20, feed the post and you’ll likely hear the student section singing  “…take me home country roads” when the game is over. I truly believe WVU is the team to exceed all expectations right now, starting Monday…that’s if their fans can stop throwing things on the court.

The pick: WVU

Tuesday continues with #7 Purdue vs #5 Michigan State. – Kalin Lucas missed Saturday’s tilt vs Illinois and is questionable for the showdown with Purdue. With Izzo’s squad missing Lucas’ 15.6 ppg, look for E’Twaun Moore to have a field day and surging Purdue to capitalize. The Boilermakers have won six in a row after dropping three to Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Northwestern in mid January. It should be noted that because these teams play in the “put you to sleep it’s such slowly paced” Big Ten, the first team to 50 points might win.

Pick: Purdue

Wednesday is The Game. Duke vs Carolina.  As a Duke fan, it’s a holiday for me.  Look forward to it all year.  This year would make a naïve Duke fan extremely happy given the fact that Carolina is struggling to win anything recently.  The Tar Heels have fallen to a dismal 2-5 in the “not as tough as people think really is this year “ ACC, and 13-9 on the year. Things are so bad, Joe Lunardi is predicting Roy Williams is NIT bound. While hearing things like this should make Duke fans giddy, “Crazies” know that Duke is a Jeckyl and Hyde team in February.  Thursday’s thrashing of #19 Georgia Tech (pardon me Counting Crowes) “gives reason to believe” that Duke has finally turned a corner. However, this is Duke-Carolina, and anything can happen.  A win over a top ten rival is just what UNC needs to boost its resume. I’m hoping that’s not the case. Look for Scheyer and Singler to stroke it early and often.

The Pick : Duke

Saturday #14 Tennessee vs #3 Kentucky- Very simple. This is where the rest of the nation finds out what I already know. Tennessee is not as good as people think. Yes, Bruce Pearl did beat John “no Final Fours” Calipari two years ago when Memphis was undefeated, yes Tennessee took down Kansas this year, and Yes Tennessee has decent talent, but in no way shape or form do I see them winning Saturday night.

The pick: Kentucky in a rout, and inside twelve minutes left the announcers start talking about John Wall’s potential “at the next level”.   Are they not allowed to say “NBA”?

Notre Dame’s horrific losses to Rutgers and Loyola Marymount may have been the final straw to end the Irish NCAA hopes this year, but don’t blame Luke Harangody for not trying to work a miracle. The workhorse scored 37 and grabbed 14 boards in a win Thursday vs Cincy. The senior is averaging 24.2 ppg and 9.7 rpg.  It may be a good thing that the nation has quietly forgotten about “Gody”, because he seems to be holding a grudge and it’s helping the squad.

Bigger Not Better in NCAA Tournament

Is it just me or is anyone else rooting for Syracuse to land a #1 seed then lose to a #16 because Jim Boehiem keeps advocating a 96 team tournament ?

Big East Basketball Still On Top

Still wondering which conference is the toughest in America?   Joe Lunardi’s most recent Bracketology has seven Big East Teams getting bids, and three listed as “first four out”. One conference- 10 of the best 68 teams in the country. Good luck coaches.

Kentucky Basketball Falls From Its perch.  Who’s Next?

The 75-76’ Indiana Hoosiers can breathe a little easier now that Kentucky, the last remaining unbeaten team this season, has suffered it’s first loss to South Carolina.  Led by an array of tough, clutch, and “how the hell did he hit that” shots from Devan Downey, the Gamecocks made Kentucky’s stay atop the polls very short.

The recent upset of John (“ never actually been to a Final Four”) Calipari, John (“one and done”) Wall and Kentucky as well as the memories of Mario Chalmers trey to beat an undefeated Memphis in 08’ show that even the best of the best can take a loss.  Which makes hoopsters wonder: Will there ever be another undefeated champion ?

Devan Downey dropped thirty in the 68-62 upset, and put himself on the map as one of the nation’s best scorers; although Gamecock faithful will be quick to tell you that he’s no fluke.  The Chester, S.C. native spurned his home state by electing to attend Cincinnati as a freshman. After posting 11.9 ppg in his freshman year,  Downey decided to come home, and it’s been all good since.  After sitting out the ’06-’07 season, Downey’s scored 18.4 ppg (07-08),and 19.8(08-09).  He’s even better this season as Downey’s 22.4 ppg leads the SEC.  With a scorer like this, and a decent record, 12-8 (3-3), The Gamecocks have a shot to be a dark horse in the SEC tournament. After all, they have shown they can play with (and beat) the best.

Now that no unbeatens remain,  who is the  frontrunner for a national title?  With such a crop of great teams atop the polls there may not be just one, but Kansas stands out. Bill Self’s crew is currently 19-1 with their only setback to #14 Tennessee. A January 30th trip to #13 Kansas State, and Feb 8th trip to #6 Texas could yield two wins that would give the Jayhawks the most impressive resume in the country. It should also be noted that Kansas currently ranks 2nd in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency and you know how much we like that.

Speaking of frontrunners… CBSSports.com’s Gary Parrish points out that the end of January is a great time to find out who will make the Final Four. Parrish stated that in the past five seasons, at least three of the Final Four teams (all four in ’08) have been in the Top Ten during the last week of January. Remember to refer back to this in March when filling out your sheets. Kentucky, Kansas, Villanova, Syracuse, Michigan State, Texas, Georgetown, Duke, West Virginia and Purdue are your current candidates.

Pitt Basketball In Good Hands

It seemed pretty clear entering this season that Pitt would be “rebuilding” after losing a veteran core of Levance Fields, Dejuan Blair, Sam Young, & Tyrell Biggs that was seconds away from the Final Four. It would be hard to blame the Panthers for a mediocre season after losing so many talented players; although it seems as if Jamie Dixon, 2009 Naismith Coach of the Year, had other ideas. Off to a 13-2 (3-0) start behind 17.2 PPG from sophomore Ashton Gibbs  and another 12.2 from junior Brad Wanamaker’s , the #20 Panthers are quietly becoming a force in the Big East, and the nation.

Recently seeded as high as four in ESPN’s Bracketology, the Panthers certainly have the resume to back it.  Aside from an inexplicable loss to 7-8 Indiana, Pitt’s only other misstep is to #1 Texas.

Tonight’s game at #15 UCONN could be the most important of the season thus far. A win over the Huskies would solidify them as an elite team in the nation’s toughest conference. Dixon’s crew has made a case to put them in that discussion with a road win over then #5 Syracuse, but taking down another Top 25 conference foe would end any doubts that they are for real. Don’t think the experienced Pitt leader doesn’t know how much this win would mean for his team in the long run. Look for a tough battle between Ashton Gibbs and Kemba Walker in Storrs tonight.

Something to think about if Pitt does win tonight, though, is whether it’s out of the question to name Jamie Dixon Coach of The Year so far .  How many coaches could lose so much talent from an Elite Eight team, and be 14-2 and 4-0 in the Big East ? So far, just one.  Jamie Dixon.

Time for Purdue Basketball To Sink Or Swim

While Pitt was expected to struggle this season, Purdue was touted as a team on the rise. Seems as if the Boilmakers are reading their own press clippings, as they’ve stumbled to a 2-2 start in Big Ten Conference play. Back to back losses toWisconsin, and Ohio State put Matt Painter’s team in an interesting situation as they travel to overachieving 13-2 Northwestern and an Illinois squad currently sitting atop the conference .   We’ll know soon enough if Purdue is a contender or pretender based on the next two contests.

T&Two NCAA Bracket Busters to Watch

Northern Iowa 15-1 (Missouri Valley) – The veteran team already has a win over pre season top 25 Siena.

Louisiana Tech (16-1) (Western Athletic) – 4-0 in conference play, and wins over Houston and Nevada as resume boosters.

Cornell (14-3) (Ivy)- A recent five point loss at Kansas put them on the national radar. Wins over St. John’s, Davidson, Alabama, LaSalle, and UMass show they’re capable of excelling against the  big conferences.

Crucial Stretch For Duke Basketball

Duke enters a critical section of its schedule that could go a long way to deciding if  the Blue Devils can end their five year stretch without a  Final Four appearances . The annual mid-January/early February trek through the ACC has literally been Hell for the Devils. Taking a look at recent years : In 2009-, they were 18-1 on  Jan 28th.  A loss to Wake Forest started a skid that saw  four  losses in a six game span  through Feb. 15th.  The 2007 season found Coach K’s boys at 18-3 before a Feb 1st home loss to Virginia started a four game skein.  Duke went 4-8 from that point to finish the season, including first round losses in both the  ACC and NCAA tourneys.

Coach K has been quick to remind Blue Devil faithful that this year’s team is much older, and bigger than teams of the past. It will be seen very shortly if the 13-2 Dukies will use their age and experience during a stretch of games including Wake Forest, Clemson, and Georgetown in the next few week

Big Fish in a Small Pond

Hats off to Appalachian State’s Donald Sims, who torched Davidson for 44 points last week.

Games to Watch This Week

Wednesday – Pitt @ UCONN- Typical Big East dogfight. Don’t rule out anything amazing…not even  six overtimes.
Thursday- Cal @ Washington State-Preseason top ten Cal is quickly slipping, and needs a win to resurrect its tourney hopes.

Saturday – Syracuse @ West Virginia.  Georgia Tech vs North Carolina.

Head Scratcher of the Week

Got an email from Chris Beermann that informed me that he recently attended a COLLEGE game, where a coach :

• -Asked for a timeout while the other team was dribbling  the ball
• -Asked the ref “if he could have the foul on #11”, instead of  his leading scorer who had just picked up his third personal foul.

It’s not surprising that Chris also informed me that the coach’s team lost.

New York Jets Both Lucky and Good

The Jets went into Cincinnati last Saturday having spent as much time defending their Wild Card position as they had preparing for the game, itself.  Blasted for having punched their ticket through the generosity of the Bengals and Indianapolis Colts; two teams with nothing to play for that had virtually rolled over and played dead for Gang Green in the season’s final two games, the Jets took the field with a little something more at stake than just a playoff game.  They wanted to prove they belonged.

And prove it they did, behind Mark Sanchez’s best contest of the season.  They sent the Bengals home for the winter in a performance that, while not as dominating as the previous week’s, saw them control every facet of the game from start to finish.  Head Coach Rex Ryan had raised more than a few eyebrows with some of his pre game statements; like calling his Jets the Super Bowl favorites, but his charges made him look like a prophet, for the first round at least, and have some thinking that maybe Ryan is crazy like a fox.

While the Jets are still the longest of long shots, there is a budding sense among players and fans alike that something special could actually happen.  Cursed for most of their existence by some of the most excruciating losses and disappointments the NFL has seen, these Jets have actually had the breaks go their way over the last month.  Their late season matchups with Indy and Cincy could not have been better timed, the myriad of teams that needed to lose in order for the Jets to advance did just that, there could not have been a better first round matchup than the one they drew with the Bengals and, finally, Baltimore’s rout of New England brought a second round tilt with San Diego; a daunting foe, indeed, but a far more favorable opponent than Peyton Manning and the Colts.  Are these guys really the Jets?

The one thing Big Rexy and his boys need to guard against, however, is the idea that they’re now playing with house money; as if last week’s win validated a successful season and whatever happens next doesn’t matter.  While each of those points is true, to a degree, the NFL offers a very small window for teams chasing a title.  No matter how young, no matter how talented, franchises can never be sure how many opportunities they’ll get for championship glory.  The Jets should know this better than any as their Super Bowl drought is longer than every team but the Detroit Lions and is marred by missed field goals, snapped Achilles tendons and muddy fields.  Ryan has given every indication that he’ll keep his foot on the gas pedal and his team’s confidence seems to be growing because of it.  Now, let’s see how much of the newfound good fortune they can transport to San Diego.

Open Mouth, Insert Foot

In the aftermath of the Jets’ first round victory came the post game comments of SNY commentator Adam Schein and WFAN host Mike Francesa.  Schein, on the SNY post game show Saturday night, came down very hard on punter Steve Weatherford, who was held out of the game due to illness, according to the team.  Schein, who gives no impression of ever having worn a football helmet, questioned Weatherford’s character; stating that the illness had better be serious.  The Jets would later reveal that Weatherford had been diagnosed with an irregular heartbeat, something he’ll need to have surgically corrected in the off season.

That revelation did nothing to dissuade Francesa, who went down the same path Sunday morning, only to be corrected by a colleague.  That he was unaware that the punter’s condition had been made public the night before is not surprising as his indifference is exceeded only by his arrogance.  Each of these gas bags missed what was obvious to most: that since Weatherford was, in fact, on the sideline and in uniform, his condition must have been very serious for the Jets to hold him out of the game.  But, hey, why let the facts get in the way of sounding like a big, tough ballplayer?

NCAA Basketball Shill Vitale Loses Credibility

After thirty years, it’s time for ESPN’s lead hypocrite, Dick Vitale, to pack up his self-proclaimed “one eyed ziggy” act and go away forever.  While it’s always been difficult to stomach the superfluous nonsense he spews during his network’s broadcasts, he now regularly ignores and, in fact, rewrites the history of the coaches and programs whose fannies he chooses to smooch.

During Tuesday’s matchup of Florida and Kentucky, Vitale went into a rant about Mark McGwire, repeating what he’d said that morning on “Mike and Mike”.  He used the term “cheater” numerous times, referring to how sick he was of the steroid mess in baseball and how he sought refuge by talking up the game between the Wildcats and Gators.  A game that, incidentally, featured one of the college game’s more infamous cheaters, John Calipari, who’d been identified as such just weeks before by Vitale’s ESPN colleague, Bob Knight.  Not surprisingly, Vitale chose to ignore the issue. Not only was much of the telecast filled with Vitale’s praise for Calipari’s coaching ability, a graphic soon popped up naming the Kentucky coach as Vitale’s selection as Coach of the Year through this point in the season.  Finally, he mentioned that Calipari is attempting to become only the second coach to take three teams to the Final Four.  A complete rewriting of the facts, actually, as both of Calipari’s previous trips to the Championship round with UMass and Memphis have been vacated due to NCAA infractions.  According to the NCAA’s own records, Calipari’s never been to a Final Four.  I guess Vitale didn’t get the news.  Regardless, until he’s told by ESPN to take his ball and go home; something that, unfortunately, doesn’t seem to be imminent, any game that he works will be an extremely difficult and annoying listen.

New Jersey Devils Star Toils in Virtual Anonymity

If Devils’ goalie  Martin Brodeur  had been as dominant over the course of his career in any other sport or for any other New York area team, there’d already be a statue of him standing in front of a stadium.

New York Knicks Haunted in Oklahoma

During their two day stay in Oklahoma City, New York Knicks forwards Eddy Curry and Jared Jefferies complained that they were unable to sleep due to the fact that their hotel, The Skirvin, is haunted by ghosts.   I’ll leave you to your own punchlines.

Mark McGwire’s Weak Apology Does Settle One Score

Why would we have expected anything different from Mark McGwire?  Why would we think that, unlike all of the other steroid cheats who have come forward, sort of, that he’d be the one to completely open up about his own use?  Sorry, wasn’t going to happen.  Despite the earnest attempts of MLB Network’s Bob Costas to guide him to the full disclosure necessary for forgiveness, McGwire resisted throughout.  As a result, he looked like someone who came forward only because it was a requirement for his employment with the St. Louis Cardinals.  However, despite the fact that we learned very little that we didn’t already suspect, McGwire inadvertently settled one major debate about himself.

Forget his ridiculous assertions that the steroids were low dosage, that they did nothing to improve his performance or that he always wanted to come forward about his use of PED’s. It’s all nonsense.  Focus, instead, on his admission that, due to his frustration with chronic injury, he decided against retirement and started using steroids in 1996 to help him overcome his physical woes and get back on the field. By that very statement, he is also confirming that in no way does he deserve to be considered for the Hall of Fame.

Prior to the ’96 season, McGwire had posted 220 HR and 657 RBI over his first ten seasons; a far cry from consideration for the Hall.  He had appeared in just 74 games over the previous two seasons, prompting his thoughts of retirement.  In 1996, however, McGwire embarked on a four year slugfest that saw him launch an inhuman 245 home runs. So, if we connect the dots, what McGwire actually told Costas was that, had it not been for steroids, he’d have retired with the 220 dingers that would have left him off of every voter’s ballot.

Baseball is a game in which cheating has long been revered.  Hitters cork their bats while teams grow the grass high to aid slow infielders and water down the dirt to foil basestealers.  The 1951 Giants won a pennant aided by an employee in the scoreboard stealing the other team’s signs, journeyman pitcher Mike Scott won a Cy Young by scuffing the ball and spitballer Gaylord Perry has a plaque in Cooperstown.  Oddly, fans and players alike look at these indiscretions with a kind of twisted admiration.  To that end, baseball got exactly what it asked for with these steroid cheats.  I just wish they’d have a little more respect for our intelligence when they come forward and not hand us the ridiculous crap that we saw from McGwire on Monday.

Tar Heel Basketball Lacking Math Skills?

College of Charleston shocked #9 North Carolina Monday night in an 82-79 overtime thriller. Hats off to the Charleston basketball program for a miraculous win but we here at the T&Two can’t help but wonder what would have happened if Roy Williams (right) chose to follow our “foul up 3” motto.

In case you didn’t watch the game, here’s the setup. C of C’s Andrew Goudelock came off a screen and got the ball with less than ten seconds on the clock. He dribbled to the right wing against Carolina’s Ed Davis and fired up the game-tying three from twenty eight feet with just two seconds left on the clock. The Charleston crowd went bonkers and the game headed to OT, where UNC would eventually lose.

While everyone loves the story of “the underdog”, it’s hard not to think about the “what if ?”.  What if Roy Williams had decided to foul up 3 ? Would the game have even gone into overtime?  Probably not.

It boggles my mind to watch coaches allow teams to shoot a three to tie, when a foul would limit the opposition to just two free throws.  A foul requires the shooting team to: a)hit the first shot, b)miss the second, c)get the rebound and, most dificultly, d)score than it is to just hit a three. Without a foul, the offense needs to accomplish but one thing; hit the three.  Isn’t it a simple matter of mathematics that it’s harder to accomplish four tasks, (two of which are being contested), than one?

Monday’s decision by Roy Williams is even more of a head-scratcher when you consider the following.  Charleston shot 13-32 (40.6 %) from behind the arc on the night, led by Andrew Goudelock, who had already hit four of eight threes and would end up scoring the last eight points in regulation for Charleston. UNC had every right to believe they’d grab the carom of any missed foul shot; having outrebounded Charleston 52-32 in the game and, finally, Charleston was only 3-6 from the charity stripe with Goudelock missing his only attempt.  Can’t see any reason why Carolina would have opted to allow a trey instead of a free throw.

Hey, Roy, didn’t you expect Goudelock to shoot it, given how hot he was?  Wouldn’t your team have a huge advantage when it came to rebounding a missed foul shot? I guess we’ll never know what may have happened if UNC chose to foul, but we do know that the theory of fouling up three continues to be eschewed by coaches despite both its logic and record of success.

Big East Basketball Continues to Dominate

Any doubt the Big East is still the most dangerous conference in America ? Even after losing a number of stars from the most competitive league in NCAA history in 2008-2009, the Big East finds itself well represented in this week’s AP Top 25. Villanova (12-1) is 6th,  Syracuse(13-1) 7th,  West Virginia (11-1) holds down the 8th spot while Georgetown (11-1) checks in at #12.

Kansas Jayhawks Flying High; But For How Long?

Espn.com’s Dana O’Neil wrote a nice piece about how well Kansas’s team has meshed and how being ranked #1 wasn’t much pressure for the squad. Hats off to Kansas basketball coach Bill Self for showing why he’s one of the best around, especially given all the off-court trouble his team dealt with this summer.  One question, though.  Will Jayhawks be able to stay level-headed once they suffer a loss or two?  Stay tuned.

Back at UMass in 1996, after a meteoric rise to national prominence guided by Calipari, Minuteman star Marcus Camby was found to have been given $28,000, jewelry and prostitutes by boosters.  Before the NCAA’s investigation was completed, however, the coach had skipped town for the riches of the NBA.  This time, in Memphis, it was falsified SAT scores that brought the program down, as it was found that someone other than Derrick Rose had sat for Rose’s test.  There was also a small matter of unpaid travel expenses on the team’s charter plane for Rose’s brother.  But, once again, Calipari was gone before the sheriff could lock him up; this time to Kentucky.

It seems like an easy fix for the governing body of collegiate athletics but, all too often, easy is a synonym for impossible in the world of college sports. How difficult is it to impose the same penalty on the offending coach as the one handed down to the school?  Can’t see Kentucky throwing $40 million at Calipari knowing it won’t be making a tournament appearance for two years.  Nor would Memphis have hired him eight years ago if the UMass probation had still been hanging around his neck. Remove that golden parachute and watch how fast compliance becomes the focus of the program.

And what of the players that committed to the coach? While the NCAA professes to operate in the best interests of the student-athlete, it turns its back on the shenanigans of coaches whose actions have such a negative impact on the very athletes for which they are responsible.  In Memphis’ case, the players who were lied to by Calipari must now continue on with a new coach and no chance to participate in the post season or transfer and sit out a year.  Why not allow players to change schools and play immediately when they’ve been victimized by a coach’s misdeeds?

A decade ago, George O’Leary was hired as the head football coach at Notre Dame, only to be released a few days later when discrepancies were found on his resume.  I’m wondering if Calipari will suffer the same fate at Kentucky.  After all, he’s been hired as a coach that’s taken two teams to the Final Four while a quick look at the NCAA record books now indicates no such thing.

Stephenson’s prep career was bumpy from the start, as he transferred out of Bishop Loughlin High School after just three days. He was suspended from school for an altercation with a teammate that reportedly involved his throwing the teammate through a glass table. His on court behavior of showing up teammates and railing at referees became commonplace over the course of four years and seemed to be tolerated because of his incredible skills. Until he met Bob McKillop. The Davidson University coach cut Stephenson from the U.S. national under 18 team last summer mainly due to his inability to work with his teammates. “Lance is a tremendous basketball player,” McKillop told reporters. “The question is what was happening with those other four guys on the court, when Lance is on the court? Five percent of the game is played with the ball in your hands. The other ninety five percent is played without the ball in your hands. Lance had to work on that. We try to implement the team concept of passing more than dribbling. That was something other players got better and better at.” From that point, it became a long year for Stephenson.

In October, he was arrested for allegedly groping a female student inside the school. That case is set to go to trial on July 15th. His recruiting visit to Maryland sparked a furor after he went on a tour of the facilities of athletic outfitter Under Armour, whose founder is a Maryland alum deemed by the NCAA as a booster; someone prohibited from contacting a recruit. Maryland subsequently dropped out of the process, as did Arizona, Memphis, Kansas and St. John’s. Ironically, Cincinnati, a school that fired its coach just two years ago over the issue of the questionable character of some of its recruits, was the last school standing and became Lance’s safety net. Maybe, just maybe, the circumstances by which Stephenson’s star was dimmed will serve as a wake up call to some of the young AAU superstars who are pandered to by parents, coaches and sneaker companies. No matter the level of talent, nothing trumps love of the game, dedication to teammates or the drive to be part of something bigger than yourself.

Steve Oliver is not one of the most talented high school players in the nation. He owns none of the career scoring records at his alma mater, Xavier High School, attended instructional camps that his parents paid for and has some of his games recorded on home video. A hard working athlete with the dream of playing college basketball, he chose the College of Mount Saint Vincent for its academics, financial aid package and the opportunity to play Division III hoops.

Oliver also experienced fits and starts throughout his career. Taller than his elementary school teammates, he spent much of his time playing center but, at six feet tall, was forced to remake himself into a guard in high school. After spending countless hours working on his shooting and ballhandling, he was told that his quickness was an issue, prompting hundreds of sessions jumping rope. When upper body strength became a problem he headed to the weight room. Along the way he battled things like fatigue, second guessing and time management, all in pursuit of the chance to play at the next level.

Off the court, Oliver integrated himself into the school’s community; serving as a mentor to younger teammates and traveling to Mexico and Tennessee to build homes for impoverished people. His rewards came not in the form of scholarship offers but in the respect of faculty and coaches. He received the Coach’s award for his leadership on the basketball team and was presented with the Alumni award at graduation for his outstanding character and devotion to the school.

When he shows up at his first collegiate practice in October, he’ll be facing many of the same obstacles that he overcame at Xavier. He’ll be fighting for playing time and the coach’s confidence while gearing up to play in front of sparse crowds on winter weeknights when most of the basketball world is home watching the big boys on ESPN.

One of those big boys will be Lance Stephenson, someone seemingly more interested in what the game can do for him rather than the other way around. So shoot me an email and let me know how Cincinnati is doing. I’ll be sitting in the bleachers watching Steve Oliver show me how much he loves the game.

Maybe I’m missing something. Each year, I watch college basketball from November to April and come away amazed at the performance of many collegiate stars. No hoops novice, I leave each season thinking I have a good feel for who the elite players are, only to have my opinions blown up by NBA general managers on draft night. This year, in particular, a number of the NCAA’s top performers fell into the second round while those projected to have higher ceilings populate the higher end of the draft. Potential seems to trump an established body of work every time.

For starters, it was strange to see Pitt’s DeJuan Blair, the best player on one of the top teams in the country’s most elite conference, have to wait until the 37th pick to hear his name called. Now, I realize that professional scouts are concerned by the fact that Blair stands just 6’6″. I’ll also give them a pass on their reservations about his jump shot.  However, one look at the second pick reveals a contradiction of their own opinions. UConn’s Hasheem Thabeet, dubbed the best big man in this year’s lottery, was completely and thoroughly dominated by the smaller Blair in both of their head to head meetings during the ’08-’09 Big East campaign.  Any questions about whether Blair will be able to succeed on the next level should have been answered right then and there.

USC basketball alum Taj Gibson, despite averaging 14 points, 9 rebounds and 3 blocks per game, fell to pick 26 of the first round; three picks later than Omri Casspi, a 6’8″ small forward from Tel Aviv, Israel. One scouting report on Gibson says that he may lack the size strength and athleticism you’d expect from a power forward, an assessment that seems ridiculous given his college production. Even sillier, while hundreds of Pac Ten players have starred in the NBA, no Israeli player has ever played in the league. Once again, potential wins out over an established resume.

What really gets me, however, is how many of these “potential” picks, wash out. History, it seems, is disregarded on an annual basis. Where would the Celtics have been last year when, after losing Kevin Garnett to injury, if they didn’t have Glenn Davis?  Davis, despite carrying LSU to the Final Four, fell to the second round because of perceived deficiencies in the very repertoire he displayed in college. Big Baby was able to lead the Celtics through the first round using the skills that were doubted as he entered the league. We’re not trying to solve the problem of global warming here. It’d be nice, though, if NBA scouts gave a little more credibility to a college career.  Check back sometime in January to see how DeJuan Blair and Taj Gibson are doing.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see both performing at a higher level than many selected before them.