“The ball is tipped…”  The opening words to ” One Shining Moment” are so inspiring this time of year.

Tomorrow tips off the premier day for college basketball. Day 1 of the NCAA tournament. Long lunches, streaming videos on computer work screens, and even a “sick” day will all be common occurrences as The Big Dance gets underway.

Before diving into the college basketball bracket, here’s a few quick points that stand out about Selection Sunday :

Virginia Tech basketball fans were left out of the NCAA tournament despite a 23-8 (10-6) record

Any Hokie fan who jumps on the “raw deal”  bandwagon led by Dickie V should know that Virginia Tech’s resume of wins include : #249  NC Greensboro, #254 Delaware (in ot) , #275 Brown, #304 Charleston Southern, #317 VMI, #318 MD Baltimore County, and #338  North Carolina Central . This collection of wins is a main part of the reason Virginia Tech is non conference strength of schedule ranks an abysmal 318th (all ratings by kenpom.com). After being left sitting on the side with a glass of punch while everyone else is dancing in the middle for the second straight season maybe Seth Greenberg will get the memo : PLAY TOUGH TEAMS…

Mississippi State listens to T and 2 but doesn’t turn out well

Opting to follow the sacred belief that fouling up three is always a good thing, Mississippi State basketball fans saw a rare occurrence. Kentucky was able to in fact hit the first,miss the second, get the rebound and score to force overtime. Readers were quick to email asking, ” Still believe you should foul up three ? ” To which I responded, ” Name me any other time you’ve seen that happen.” Aside from Sunday’s miracle….no one had ever seen fouling up three come back to haunt someone. So the T&2 still strongly supports the theory.

Duke leapfrogs Syracuse to get #3 overall seed.

I’m a Duke fan, and I’m still not sure I can support this.

*-If you’re wondering as to why Duke gets the play-in game but Kansas is the #1 overall seed, it’s because Kansas’s first round site plays on Thursday and the NCAA gives the play in winner two days before their first round game. Since Kansas and Kentucky (the #2 overall seed ) both open up on Thursday, it was shifted down to Duke who opens up on Friday.

West Virginia and Ohio State win conference tourneys but it doesn’t help

I was pretty sure that watching the West Virginia and Ohio State basketball communities celebrate as conference champions this weekend meant it had helped their seed. After seeing the brackets released, I quickly wondered how things had gone so wrong. Based on the logic that the strongest 1 seed plays the weakest 2 seed, Ohio State basketball fans  should have a serious gripe that they are ranked 8th overall according to the bracket. Paired in a region with the tournament favorite Kansas Jayhawks, the Buckeyes are at a huge disadvantage. In addition to Kansas, a likely Sweet Sixteen date with Georgetown is not picnic either.

De’Sean Butler was thrilled to be wearing a championship t-shirt (which was thankfully spelled correctly this time) Saturday night, but I imagine he was just as displeased on Sunday night, seeing that his Mountaineers squad was paired with #2 overall Kentucky. I cannot fathom how winning The Big East, clearly the country’s best conference, tournament can push you to #7 overall. Looks like it will be up to Butler’s heroics and Bob Huggins to take down John “never actually been to a Final Four” Calipari, John “one and done” Wall and Kentucky.

Now for the brackets.

Midwest Region

First Round

Kansas – Lehigh -

Advice to any Lehigh parents or Lehigh basketball historians in attendance : If Lehigh jumps out to a 2-0 lead to open the game take a picture of the scoreboard, you’re going to need proof to show your kids you were actually ahead in this game. Kansas in a blowout.

UNLV-Northern Iowa-

The Mountain West Conference seems to be the conference to make the most noise in this year’s dance, but Northern Iowa has been on our radar since January. Northern Iowa is the pick.

You’ll never find the  T and 2 picking against Michigan State basketball and guru Tom Izzo in the First Round.

Love Houston’s story, and the spark of Brooklyn’s Zamal Nixon off the bench but Gary Williams, Grevais Vasquez and Maryland prevail.

Bruce Pearl’s 5-4 NCAA tournament record is as suspect as his suit choices. In a top heavy bracket like this, San Diego State is the best bet to shake things up. It makes even more sense to take a risk on the Aztecs when looking at second round foe Georgetown who would roll over Tennessee anyway. Take a chance on Steve Fisher to find some more NCAA magic, but don’t pencil them in any further than the second round.

James Anderson (22.6 ppg ) is the stud for Oklahoma State basketball, and Derrick Favors (12.5 ppg, 8.5 rpg) is a stud for Georgia Tech. Take your pick on who will outshine the other… The T and 2 likes Oklahoma State to win.

Surf’s up on Saturday for UC Santa Barbara on Saturday after a first round Friday night loss to Ohio State and Evan Turner, who will mostly likely “hang ten”…..actually “hang 30″ the way he scores.

Second Round

Rock Chalk Jayhawk as Kansas rolls over Northern Iowa, likely meeting Maryland, who takes down a crippled Michigan State squad, in the Sweet Sixteen.

No hesitation by the T & 2  to pencil Georgetown and Ohio State into the Sweet Sixteen.

Sweet Sixteen

I’ve praised Maryland basketball recently for becoming an elite team this season, mostly in part to Grevais Vasquez’s amazing play, but a matchup vs Kansas clearly becomes : great player vs great team. We will always take the great team. Kansas is the pick.

Can you say slug fest? Georgetown and Ohio State are two teams who can really defend and slow things down. Aside from the get it go play of Evan Turner, this game will be interesting to watch unfold. Unlike the Kansas-Maryland match up, G-town and Ohio State matched two similarly talented teams separated by Ohio State’s Evan Turner. When looking at a match up of equal teams, we’ll always predict the best player to decide things late. Ohio State to the Elite Eight.

Regional Final

Evan Turner is phenomenal but Kansas is loaded. Despite a loaded region, Kansas should return to the Final Four.

West Region

No Taylor Coppenrath heroics can ruin this one. Syracuse advances despite the loss of Arinze Onuaku.

A West Coast Conference Championship game loss to St.Mary’s seriously cost Gonzaga basketball a better seed. Under seeded as an 8, expect a Gonzaga romp over Florida State coming from a weak ACC.

Butler has won 20 in a row.UTEP won 16 in a row before being knocked off by Houston in the Conference USA championship game. Both teams come into the clash hot, but look for UTEP’s front line of 6-11 Arnett Moultrie, 6-11 Claude Britten, and leading man 6-9 Derrick Caracter to cause the undersized Butler team trouble. UTEP in an upset special.

Not overly-impressed by Vandy, but love the fact that Murray State’s top six scorers average 10.6, 10.5, 10.4, 10.4, 10.3, and 9.5 ppg. The Racers clearly share the ball and will likely share a victory. Murray State to the second round.

Xavier sends home Minnesota,an overrated Big Ten team ….SHOCKER.

The Oakland Zoo of Pitt gets the best of Oakland.

BYU crushes Florida, and Kansas State takes care of North Texas.

Second Round

Don’t think Syracuse and Jim Boeheim will just walk  into the Sweet Sixteen. Gonzaga was a top ten team in January and aside from inexcusable losses to San Fransisco, and Loyola Marymount. The Zag’s other four losses are all to NCAA tournament teams :Michigan State, Wake Forest, Duke,and a recent blowout from St.Mary’s.  The real question is which Gonzaga team will show up ? With Syracuse down a man, the core of Matt Bouldin , Elias Harris and Steven Gray could make under seeded Gonzaga a real sleeper here, but I’m still not confident they will get everything together. Syracuse escapes.

UTEP continues it’s run into the Sweet Sixteen over Murray State’s balanced attack.

No Levance Fields to take the last shot this time. Xavier gets revenge eliminating Pitt and Jamie Dixon who deserves much credit for everything he’s done with a team supposedly “rebuilding” .

It’s very simple. The winner of the BYU-Kansas State game is going to the Final Four. BYU’s offensive (12th) and defensive (21st) efficiency pop off the page for a 7 seed, but Kansas State’s offensive (16th) and defensive (19th) numbers are impressive as well. Jimmer Fredette is something to watch for the Cougars, but Jacob Pullen of Kansas State can stroke it too. I’m itching to pick BYU, but Kansas State seems to have the extra notch but I won’t be shocked if BYU pulls it off.

Sweet Sixteen

Syracuse fans should be thrilled to see 12 seed UTEP as a Sweet Sixteen matchup. Onuaku should be healthy by this time, and Syracuse picks up the win.

Xavier is never one to be an easy out so expect a dogfight here vs Kansas State, but put K State on your next line.

Regional Final

This year’s bracket is extremely top heavy. Aside from 2-3 teams, the true title contenders are the 1-3 seeds, so do not rule out a 2008 repeat of all 1 seeds in the Final Four. I don’t see it happening this year as Kansas State takes down Syracuse.

If you’re really hot on Syracuse, take note to the fact that since Syracuse’s 1996 Championship game appearance, Boeheim has seen his Orange squad in the NIT 4 times(twice in the last 3), lose in the NCAA first round 3 times(2 of the three in 05, and 06), lose in the second round once,  make 4 Sweet Sixteens and capture a National Championship(2003).  One begins to wonder if Carmelo Anthony had gone straight to the NBA, how quickly could we call Jim Boehiem a tournament underachiever ?  It’s worth pondering when looking at the Orange’s injured center, and roadblocks of Gonzaga, and Kansas State.

South Region

Duke’s second five could beat Arkansas Pine Bluff.

Cal was actually my pre-season favorite to make the Final Four. T & 2 reader Nolan Adams has done his best to continue to remind me of that every chance he gets. On paper, the Bears looked and still look like a good team. A disastrous stretch early doomed them. With all that talent, I would expect a win over Louisville as a nice way to salvage the season.

Not good that Texas A&M is matched against Utah State in Spokane, which gives the underdog a big advantage. Will be extremely close but look for a year of Big Twelve wars under their belts to allow Texas A&M to escape.

Can a 13 seed actually be favored to win ? Seems like it as everyone and their mother is taking Siena…me included. The Saints will need Ryan Rossister to be extremely efficient inside for the upset.

A conference rarely runs the table in the opening round, even a conference as good as The Big East. Look for Notre Dame to be the second causality as Old Dominion pulls off the upset. The Big East still comes out overly impressive with a 6-2 record over the first two days.

Baylor takes down Sam Houston State with ease.

The selection committee gets an eyebrow raise from me after seeing two quality mid majors, Richmond and St.Mary’s, paired together. To me it makes sense to switch up this 7-10 match up with the 7-10 Oklahoma State- Georgia Tech game of two major conference teams. Why not mix up the two ? We’ll never know if it was the committee’s intention or if they really don’t like seeing mid majors succeed.  Aside from the seeding gripe, this game is going to be one to watch. St.Mary’s is hot off a spanking of Gonzaga, and Richmond comes flying out of the A-10. Kevin Anderson is the key here, the Richmond point guard is truly special. Watch him take this one over.

Villanova and Jay Wright (likely seen with his flashy suit and shiny hair)  send Robert Morris home.

Second Round

Duke joins Syracuse as a 1 seed with a scary 2nd round game. Regardless if it’s California, or Louisville they will be facing, Duke will be challenged. I think it will be Cal, who I feel is very talented with a good back court of Jerome Randle and Patrick Christopher. Duke is playing at their best, and I think they will survive….barely.

Texas A&M downs Siena but this will be closer than expected.

Baylor knocks off Old Dominion.

The Richmond “Spiders” will not just be getting drinks for Tommy, Henry and Jimmy in this tournament. Expect them to be “made men” after an upset of Villanova. For everything you expect Scottie Reynolds to do for Nova’ expect Anderson to do the same if not more. He’s that good. Richmond to crash the Sweet Sixteen.

Sweet 16

Brian Davis and David Loubeau are each 6’9 and will challenge the Blue Devils inside, but expect Duke’s shooting to let them live another day.

The Big 12 this year is what the Big East was last year. Baylor keeps boosting the conference’s resume with an Elite Eight appearance knocking off Richmond.

Regional Final

Duke’s already hated in college basketball. It’s what’s happens in all of sports. People hate the Yankees, people hate the Cowboys, people hate Duke, and the Yankees, Cowboys, and Duke all know it. The fact that Duke got the easiest road only adds to the hatred, but I advise you to put that hatred aside when predicting this year’s tournament because Duke is a different team. They don’t have a go to star like Evan Turner or De’Sean Butler, but they have the best trio in the country. Another stat to consider is Duke’s efficiencies.  

Duke currently ranks 2nd and 5th in Offensive and Defensive efficiencies respectively. The only other team who ranks in the top 5 in both categories this season…Kansas. The last time Duke ranked in the top 5 in both categories ? 2004…..the last time Duke appeared in the Final Four. I’m a Duke fan, but even if you’re not…these numbers speak volumes. Kyle Singer, Nolan Smith, John Scheyer-face and Duke head back to the Final Four.

East Region

Kentucky slams East Tennessee State.

I guess someone has to win Texas vs Wake Forest, although based on how awful each have been this season I wouldn’t be surprised if both lost. Texas is the pick.

I consider Jay Bilas the best analyst in all of college basketball, but his plan to put Cornell in the Sweet Sixteen is a little bit of a stretch in my mind. I also think Cornell is likely to be picked by a large number of people, so selecting Temple is a value pick.

Bo Ryan and Tom Izzo’s consistency to running successful programs are the only thing that makes the Big Ten tolerable. Wisconsin defeats Wofford.

Big East is great, Marquette lives in close games, Pac Ten stinks…seems pretty simple.

New Mexico easily takes care of Montana.

ACC struggled this year, with disappointing Clemson as the “they were suppose to be good” poster boys of the conference. Missouri uses Big 12 experience to will out an ugly one.

Bob Huggins can bring out his most comfortable sweat suit because this one will be an easy win for West Virginia.

Second Round

Kentucky vs Texas as a second round matchup. I never would have guessed this in January..you know when Texas was actually winning games. Kentucky and John Wall cause Rick Barnes to walk off the court shaking his head wondering where he went wrong and not stop for the next three months.

Bo Ryan’s NCAA Tournament record = 11-8.  Fran Dunphy’s NCAA Tournament Record = 1-11. Wisconsin with the win.

Expect close games from Marquette throughout the tournament, and Marquette knows it. Aside from a blowout loss to Georgetown, and a blowout win over Lousiville. Marquette’s 5-1 in their last six games which have all been decided by no more than 4 points, including 4 that have gone into overtime (Marquette is 3-1 in those games). New Mexico will keep it close…but that may actually help Marquette.

West Virginia dismisses Missouri.

Sweet 16

Only two Final Four teams have been ranked outside the top 25 of both Offensive and Defensive efficiencies in the last 6 seasons. Both occurred in 2006 when George Mason and LSU each snuck in. Aside from those two, the formula for a Final Four is simple, be ranked in the top 25 of both categories. Kentuky is ranked in both(OE-18 DE-11) , but so is Wisconsin (OE-13, DE-7). I think John Wall’s too good, and Kentucky wins but do not be shocked if Wisconsin takes this one. I’m still on the fence….

The Big East has been “anyone beats anyone” type of conference all year, and there’s no denying West Virginia owns the best player on the floor in De’Sean Butler, but Lazar Hayward and Jimmy Butler are damn good too. Marquette wins a tough game close….which is becoming their specialty.

Regional Final

Want nothing more than to root against John Calipari but his group of one and dones are too good. Not bright…but good. Kentucky does “The John Wall Dance” into the Final Four.

Final Four

Get ready to hear “how hard it is to beat  team 4 times”, it will most likely be during Kansas’s celebration after the defeat Kansas State….for the fourth time.

2005 was the last NCAA Championship I can remember two absolute dominant one seeds meeting in the Final. Illinois took on UNC and everyone pretty much saw it coming.

1999 was another year where it was only a matter of time before the two powers of the tournament, Duke and UCONN, decided the title.

This year looks extremely similar. Kansas and Kentucky are better than every other team in this bracket…by  a big margin. Everything about placing them in the NCAA Championship Game makes sense.

The one thing that makes me hesitate is that I can’t see Calipari getting to a title game and then losing it again. I believe that there’s only a certain amount of times a coach  can get his team close and lose before he eventually wins. Think about it. It was true for Boeheim, it was true for Roy Williams, and it was true for Bill Self. I think if Kentucky gets to the Championship, the theory comes true for John Calipari. So it seems logical to pick Kentucky, although I just can’t seem to pick Kentucky after watching how dominant Kansas is. I think everything is in the cards for them to take home the title, and I’m confident they will.Which is why I pick Duke to knock off Kentucky, and Kansas to be the 2010 NCAA National Champions.

Evaluating the picks

After examining credible criteria for recent NCAA Champions and Final Four teams, I found the most consistent stats  are :

Final Four teams ranking in the Top 25 in Offensive and Defensive Efficiency

My picks of Kansas (OE-1 DE-4),  Kentucky (OE-18 DE-11), Duke (OE-2 DE-5) and Kansas State (OE-15 DE-17) all stack up to the criteria.

Champions have 3 future pro’s

Gary Parrish is the biggest advocate of this theory. After researching the last 40 NCAA champions Parrish found that one NCAA Championship team had less than three players to play in the NBA at some point. The team was 2003 Syracuse.

My pick of Kansas has three future first rounders according to mock drafts.

• Champions are 1 seeds

Sounds silly but dating back to 1985 (the tourney’s expansion to 64) 16 of the past 25 (64 %)  NCAA Champions have been #1 seeds including the last three years.

Good luck with your bracket. Enjoy the games and as always foul up three.

Greivis Vasquez : A proven winner or desperate to be the center of attention ?

All I could think of while watching and  suffering through the home stretch of that Duke-Maryland game was what exactly to make of Greivis Vaquez’s actions. My gut instinct was to characterize it as another “look at me” type of performance  that is not much different from a little child screaming in the grocery store becuase of what it’s aimed for : attention. You saw the act.. the chest pounding, the pointing to the stands, raising his arms, and putting his hand to his ear saying “I can’t hear you”. I was utterly disgusted that he couldn’t just play, and win the game. He made it a show. My attention wasn’t focused on saluting his performance for beating my Dukies, it was not focused on how dumb he looked. Let’s be serious. He’s easily one of the top 10, possibly top 5 players in the country. Does he really  need to hear the fans chanting to be the best player on the court ? Doubtful.

Duke fans have every right to be annoyed by these actions given just how much of a spectacle Vasquez made himself last night, but Maryland fans James “Mopez” Lopez, and Sally I.   have their reasons to justify Vasquez’s actions. ” In my opinion, Vasquez thrives in those situations.” Lopez states. ” He wants to take the shot,and usually hits it. That’s his shot and I’ve seen him hit it consistently for four years.”  When asked about the sideshow act he put on, “A great competitor, and an even better entertainer….if your a Maryland fan. If not, he’s public enemy #1 and I can see why.”

Sally I. was thrilled with the victory as well, and commented “Greivis Vazquez was as emotional as I have ever seen him in any game (including NCAA Tournament games), you could tell he wanted to soak in the Maryland home crowd one last time which is exactly what he did.” The piazon went on to tell me that you shouldn’t jump on his actions so quickly. “ That game was extremely gratifying for Vazquez for three reasons: he won on senior night, gave Maryland a share of the ACC crown (barring a disaster at Virginia), and he finally put together a good individual game versus Duke, who has haunted him and the Terps during his 4 years there.”

Lopez and Sally I. both make valid points about just how important Vasquez is to the squad, which ultimately can justify his actions on the court. Not something a Duke fan wants to hear.

So what’s the verdict ? Is Vasquez a proven winner or proving to be the center of attention ? It looks like it’s a little bit of both, but one thing is for certain. After 20 points, including a back-breaking fall away shot to seal it the clutch, I can see why Maryland fans love him with the ball in his hands in the clutch.

Things can only get better for Terps seed

Lopez, and Sally I, both (separately) predicted that as of right now Maryland will be a 5 seed heading into the tourney. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has the Terps slated as a 5 as well in his current bracket, but the pro- Maryland duo predicts things could be better come Selection Sunday. Sally I, “can see Maryland as a 4 seed if they were to win the ACC tourney. No higher given the weakness of the conference.” Lopez thinks ” there’s no reason they can’t be a three with an ACC tourney title.”  Optimistic thinking, especially by Mopez, but who am I to judge maybe the hottest team in the country.

Wildcats can kiss a one seed goodbye after loss to Kansas ?

Heading into last night I was pretty confident that K-State was in great shape to position themselves on the top line of the bracket. I reasoned that if Jacob Pullen and company could topple Kansas to split the season series (after a tough two-point loss to Kansas in January on a questionable coaching decision by Frank Martin), they would be heading into the Big 12 Tournament essentially neck and neck battling for a 1 seed.

That thought ended quicker then Joey on NBC, as Kansas proved once again why they are the best team in the country with an 82-65 win or did it ?

Personally, I don’t think Kansas State is set as the last 1 seed. Although it’s highly debatable. Joe Lunardi has the Wildcats on the top line, based on their “total body of work”, while Doug “who’s credit card is that” Gottlieb and Gary Parrish claim Duke has the spot.

K-State :  24-5 (11-4)   -14 games vs RPI Top 100-       -7-4 vs RPI Top 50-

Duke: 25-5 (12-3)    -21 games vs RPI Top 100-       -8-4 vs RPI Top 50-

Tough call. The T & 2 predicts the final decision should come down to how well each fares in their conference tournament. If both should win, give the edge to Kansas State because they play in a tougher conference.

What Irish Curse ?

Notre Dame moved to one of the last four teams in the field of 65 with a 58-50 slug-fest over UConn.

Seems like the Irish have finally clicked, oddly it comes after an injury to their best player Luke Harangody. The play of Tim Ambromaitis, and the fact that Tory Jackson has changed his 08-09 habit of passing to the other team have been the difference for the team on a mission.

Don’t punch that ticket quite yet. A regular season finale vs Marquette is where the T & 2 predicts the luck runs out and ND loses, which would put the Irish at 20-11 (9-9) to finish the regular season. Heading into the Big East tourney as the 7 or 8 seed. This is where the Irish will need to win a game to secure a spot. 21-11 (10-9 overall) puts the Irish in the Big East Quarterfinals playing with house money, where regardless of the outcome they will be on the bracket.

Clemson and Texas = AWOL

Clemson and Texas might as well be sitting on an island with Red and Andy Dufrain, because they are no where near their pre-season expectations. Texas as high #3, and Clemson #24 both predicted to be capable of deep runs come March. Clemson is unranked, and Texas just sniffs the ESPN/USA today poll at #25. T & 2 thinks Rick Barnes and  Oliver Purnell can start practicing their short game, as neither will go very far in the tournament.

Credit to Boeheim

“Indiana Vance” and “Darren Pajama Pants” emailed the T&2 about a tidbit they each had picked up during Saturday’s Syracuse-Villanova telecast. NONE of Syracuse’s five starters were ranked in the Top 100 coming out of high school. Proving last week’s point that Boeheim should be coach of the year. Thanks Vance and Darren.

Planting the right seeds

Based on Joe Lunardi’s latest bracket :

Team who should love their seed : UTEP

Pegged as a 10 seed in the South region. The Miners face #7 UNLV in a highly winnable first round game. Likely waiting for UNLV is #2 Duke. A great team, but look for much improved 6-9 center Derrick Caracter, 6-11 Arnett Moultrie, and 6-7 Jeremy Williams to give over-matched and sometimes defensively clueless Brian Zoubek fits.

Team who should hate their seed: Kansas

1 seed in the Midwest region. How can you hate a 1 seed ? Well put #9 Louisville and proven winner (and nutjob) Rick Pitino, an underrated #5 Gonzaga, sleeper #12 Siena, and #4 Tennessee (whom the Jayhawks already lost to) in your way of the Sweet 16 and the possibility of #6 Butler, and still improving # 3 Pitt in your way of the Elite 8…. that’s how.

T&2 advises you to look for these type of match-ups when the bracket comes out.

Injury bug likely has coaches bugging out

Purdue’s Robbie Hummel went down last week and will miss the remainder of the season, bubble battler Notre Dame’s Luke Harangody is uncertain of a return, and Georgetown’s Austin Freeman was just diagnosed with diabetes.

Tickets punched to the Dance

With no conference tournament in the Ivy League, Cornell can clinch the regular season title and automatic bid with a win Friday night @ Brown.

Other teams will start to fill out the field this weekend. The guide :

Atlantic Sun :

Things are wild already in  Macon,GA. Three of the top four seeds were upset in the Quarterfinals, as only #2 Jacksonville survived. Friday’s semi’s pit #8 Kennesaw State vs #5 East Tennessee State at 6:30, and # 6 Mercer vs #2 Jacksonville at 9:00.

The winner friday will square off on Saturday March 6th at 6:00 on ESPN 2.

The T & 2 is pulling for Kennesaw State to shock the world, but thinks Jacksonville is a safe bet given their 16-4 record since the turn of the calendar to 2010.

Big South

#1 Coastal Carolina takes on #3 Winthrop Saturday March 6th at 4:00 on ESPN 2.

Anything is possible here, the two squads have split the season series. The T & 2 likes past Cinderella Winthrop to find the glass slipper again Saturday.

Ohio Valley

Friday pits #1 Murray State vs #4 Eastern Illionis at 7:00, and #2 Morehead State vs #6 Tennessee Tech at 9:00.

Semifinal winners square off Saturday March 6th at 8:00 on ESPN 2.

Murray State is 28-4 (17-1)  with a 5 point loss to Cal to open the year. Like balance ? The Racers top six scorers average 10.8, 10.7,  10.6, 10.3, 10.3 , and 9.5. T & 2 senses a team who shares the ball, and can likely be a deadly match-up as a double digit seed. I’ll be watching to see if they prove me right.

Missouri Valley

In a nutshell : one of the most entertaining conference tournaments, with the dumbest name. Arch Madness as they call it, gets underway Friday with Quarterfinal match-ups of #1 Northern Iowa vs #8 Drake at 1:05 , #4 Creighton vs #5 Bradley at 3:35 , #7 Missouri State vs #2 Wichita State at 7:05 and  #3 Illionis State vs #6 Indiana State at 9:35 pm.

The Semifinals will be Saturday, and the Finals Sunday at 2:05pm on CBS.

Northern Iowa just about needs this tournament to secure a bid, but the T &2 likes Wichita State to winner the rubber match final. Expect the selection committee to reward Northern Iowa with a an at-large despite the loss and send a big conference team home unhappy.

T & 2 advice for Fans

Rick Reilly recently wrote about the criteria for fans being allowed to rush the court (which is happening way to much these days). There are some great points but the T & 2 has simple rules for Championship Week.

- STOP RUSHING THE COURT if you’re already ranked. DON’T EVER DO IT. Period. The phrase “act like you been there before” comes to mind.

- For the teams in low level conferences you can rush the floor when you clinch a bid. IF:

-you haven’t been to the NCAA tournament during the entire time of your enrollment

This ensures that all students (freshman-seniors) have never experienced a conference title, making the experience that much more enjoyable.

It’s that simple. Other than that, enjoy the games because it’s the best time of the year.

]]> http://www.collegesportsview.com/1894/the-triangle-and-two-a-weekly-look-at-the-ups-and-downs-of-college-basketball-5/feed/ 0 http://www.collegesportsview.com/1886/the-triangle-and-two-a-weekly-look-at-the-ups-and-downs-of-college-basketball-4/ http://www.collegesportsview.com/1886/the-triangle-and-two-a-weekly-look-at-the-ups-and-downs-of-college-basketball-4/#comments Thu, 25 Feb 2010 18:22:58 +0000 Eddie http://www.collegesportsview.com/?p=1886 [...]]]> by Terrence Mayrose

Coach of the Year Award has two candidates this season

The race for Player of the Year is a tight battle between viable candidates like John Wall, Wesley Johnson, and Evan Turner. Every voter would have a justifiable reason for picking any of these 3 fine players, which makes it hard to speculate who will walk away with the hardwood. The Coach of The Year award should not be as difficult. In the opinion of the T and 2, voters have a choice between Syracuse’s Jim Boeheim and Pittsburgh’s Jamie Dixon. There should be no other names even acknowledged on the ballots.

Boeheim has soured people on occasion this season, as he continues to talk about expansion of the NCAA Tournament, but when it comes to coaching his 26-2 team, he’s done a great job. The ESPN USA Preseason poll had the Orange slated #25, and the AP Poll didn’t even rank Boeheim’s boys to start the season. Entering the season you couldn’t really argue that Syracuse had lost some talent from the previous year. Cuse’ lost sharpshooter/trash-talker Eric Devendorf , powerful inside forward Paul Harris, and a kid named Jonny Flynn….we’re sure you know about him. It’s obvious this season that Boeheim put those losses in his rear view mirror, and hasn’t look back since. Taking the Gene Hackman “coach who I’ve got” motto, Boeheim has flourished with “who he’s got”. Who he’s got is superstar transfer Wesley Johnson, improved Rick Johnson, Andy Rautins, and returning from injury Scoop Jardine, a formidable squad to make a run deep in the tourney; and given the way Boeheim has meshed with this unit expect that deep run.

Pittsburgh has been a Big East powerhouse virtually the last decade. Winning two titles in 08 and 03, is a feat in itself, but appearing in 7 of the last 9 Big East Championship games…yes 7.. shows just how much of a mainstay Pitt is in America’s toughest conference. This season was likely to be the year Pitt would have no shot at continuing it’s dominance. In fact it’d be a stretch to even think Pitt could make the Semi-finals of such a loaded conference, given how much Pitt had lost. Departures of NBA bound Sam Young and DeJuan Blair, point guard Levance Fields, and forward Tyrell Biggs, left Dixon in a hole entering the new decade. Such a hole that Pitt was left off the AP and ESPN/ USA preseason polls. How does Jamie Dixon respond ? By channeling Chris “all he does is catch touchdown passes” Carter, and became Jamie “all he does is win basketball games’ Dixon. The name isn’t a stretch. He currently possesses a 77.9 winning percentage to date (184-52), which includes two 30 win seasons, two Sweet Sixteen’s, and an Elite Eight. This year’s squad is 21-7, in a large part to the improvement of Brad Wanamaker, Jermaine Dixon, Gilbert Brown and Ashton Gibbs who Dixon used as role players last year. It’s clear that giving them quality minutes last year has paid off dividends.

So why are Boeheim and Dixon the clear cut favorites ? Aside from terrific records in a year where many didn’t expect it, each of these coaches has showed that developing a system, convincing players to buy into it, recruiting kids who will stay for four years, and having a passion for your team is a respectable way of coaching…and as Boeheim and Dixon have clearly shown…winning.

It’s unfair to say that the players aren’t a factor in the programs success, but it should be noted that no matter what twelve players suit up for Boeheim and Dixon, they’ll find a way to win.

So you can root for the coaches with constant recruiting violations of “one and done players” who bounce from one school to the next just to collect a bigger paycheck if you want, but at least your cap to Dixon and Boeheim because they do it the right way.

Duke and Purdue on a collision course ? They should hope so.

#1 seeds seem to be shaping up towards the end of February. Kansas and Kentucky seem to be locked into a 1 seed barring an utter collapse in their Conference Tournaments, and Syracuse controls it’s own destiny now that Villanova and West Virginia have faded from the top line.

The last 1 spot is a toss up between Purdue and Duke. As the T and 2 sees it, it’s the best case scenario for both teams.

Based on the logic that the weakest #1 seed plays the toughest #2 seed, Duke and Purdue would likely be slated in the same region. The similarities between the two teams gives each a great chance to win the game because they will be playing a team similar to themselves. Purdue is not the quickest team in the nation, and none of Duke’s significant contributors has ever been mistaken for a track star so the speed of the game will favor each team. While both the Blue Devils and Boilermakers can defend, they are not lock down defensive teams which will allow Duke to shoot the three (their  favorite thing to do on offense since Reagan was in office), and Purdue to move the ball inside for Robbie Hummel.

Ultimately what it comes down to is this. Regardless of who gets the #1 seed, Duke and Purdue should be hoping to be in the same region, because the T and 2 doesn’t seem either of them with a better matchup against any other #1 or #2 seed. Kansas, Kentucky and Syracuse are in a league of their own and Sports Illustrtated’s Andy Glockner’s other current #2 seeds are Kansas State, West Virginia and Villanova. Each is loaded with big athletic players who will smother Duke or Purdue all over the court. So Boilermaker and Blue Devils fans have every right to root for that #1 seed, but you should root harder that the team you edge out is in your bracket.

Maryland will be dancing in March

The T and 2 talked about Maryland’s tourney hopes last week, and after Saturday’s win over Georgia Tech on a remarkable 2 buzzer beaters (Gary Williams called timeout just seconds before Grevias Vasquez threw one in from halfourt, only to come out of the timeout and see Cliff Tucker drill a three to win) Maryland may be in much better shape. A huge win on Wednesday vs. Clemson just about sealed the deal for Maryland as an at-large team. Even more impressive is that a win over Virginia Tech on Saturday keeps Maryland in the running to win the ACC regular season title over Duke, if they can knock them off next Wednesday.

No Turtle Power for Maryland because of weak ACC

Isn’t it kind of odd that a 20-7 team with a 10-3 conference record in a major conference, who’s still in the running to win the league title is on the bubble ? It’s odd because the ACC is simply that weak this year. Currently the conference has only 1 ranked team (Duke). The conference will (unfairly) likely get 5-6 teams into the tourney, but the T and 2 likes only 2 to see the Sweet Sixteen, Duke and Maryland. The latter a  team I feel is highly underrated.

Northern Iowa may now forced to win Missouri Valley

#25 Northern Iowa lost to #226 (kenpom.com) Evansville Tuesday night 55-54. A severe hit to the squad’s bubble chances and every other team on the bubble. With the loss, Northern Iowa may now have to win the Missouri Valley Conference Title to make the field of 65. Every bubble team should be rooting for that because if the selection committee decides Northern Iowa is at-large worthy, that’s one-less spot that bubble teams will be vying for.

Blowing Bubbles

Every year around the end of February, “the bubble” is heard everywhere, and rightfully so. It’s the time of the year where it grows or shrinks by the day and sometimes by the hour. T and 2 has begun to evaluate just how big or small it could get, and who you should be rooting for to win conference tourneys. As mentioned above, Northern Iowa winning the conference tourney adds an at-large bid because it’s likely that they would steal one if they didn’t receive the at-large. The same goes for teams in the major conferences. Remember two years ago when Georgia came out of nowhere and stole the SEC title after playing two games in the same day like an AAU team ? The fact that Georgia won the tourney eliminated an at-large bid because there was no shot they would have received one otherwise. Basically, for the major conferences a team who has already proven to a lock to get into the NCAA tournament needs to win the the conference title.

So how many spots are available for bubble teams ? The T and 2 can help figure it out.

Based on SI’s Andy Glockener’s bracket. The ACC, Big East, and Big 12 will each get 7 teams into the NCAA Tournament. Given that three of those 21 teams(one from each conference) wins their respective tournament, the field shrinks from 65 to 62 after penciling in those three conference’s (ACC,BE,Big 12) automatic qualifiers. Then 62 becomes 44 after adding in those 18 teams with at-large spots.

The Big Ten, Atlantic Ten, and SEC are predicted to each get 5 teams into the tourney. Given that each conference champion is already one of the 5 predicted in, the field shrinks from 44 to 41. Then pencil in the other 12 teams as at large bids and you have 32.

( See how a team like (9-18) Iowa winning the Big Ten Championship could shrink a bid ? It only gets worse if that happens in multiple conferences. )

The Mountain West has 4 teams dancing according to Glockner, which shrinks to bubble to 28 given that one of those four wins.

In addition to “locks” winning from each of the major conferences, some mid-major’s are key to the bubble picture as well.

Butler (Horizon), Gonzaga (West Coast), in addition to Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley) all must win the conference title, because they essentially play in one-bid leagues. Taking the field down to 25 available spots left.

Butler,Gonzaga,and Northern Iowa are the three teams who essentially control the bubble. If they lose in the conference tournament (Butler, and Gonzaga especially), it knocks out another bubble team because Gonzaga or Butler will now be in the field as an at-large team (as we mentioned with Iowa above). This could be a devastating hit to a team like Louisville who’s currently sitting on the bubble.

Utah State (Western Athletic), Cornell (Ivy), Old Dominion (Colonial Athletic), Siena (Metro Atlantic Athletic ) winning, helps every team on the bubble because it makes each of these four teams an automatic qualifier instead of a bubble team. Which leaves 21 spots left.

Conference USA is a race between UTEP and UAB, but it’s in bubble teams best interest in UTEP locks up the title and keeps it a one-bid league. Leaving 20 spots left.

Now subtract the 16 conferences(Great West, SWAC, NEC, MEAC, Big South, Patriot, A.EAST, Summit, Southland, Atlantic Sun, Sun Belt, Ohio Valley, Big Sky, Southern, Big West, and Mid American) that will only get an automatic bid no matter what and you have 4 spots available.

Subtract the last automatic qualifier the Pac 10 champion, and you have 3 at-large bids still left on the table.

It’s debatable if 7 Big Twelve teams, and 5 A-10 teams will actually get into the NCAA tournament so the overall # of bids left may grow to 5-6 , but you get the picture…it’s a tight race for the last few spots. The only real way to seperate yourself from the pack ? Take Jamie Dixon’s approach and “just win basketball games” .

Efficiency separates contenders and pretenders

A quick look at the Pomeroy Efficency Ratings of the Top Ten teams in the ESPN/USA today poll :

Kansas OE-2 DE- 3
Kentucky OE-21 DE-9
Purdue OE- 23 DE-6
Syracuse OE-9 DE-13
Duke- OE- 1 DE-11
Kansas State OE-10 DE-22
Villanova- OE-3 DE-67
West Virginia OE-5 DE-32
Ohio State OE-14 DE-17
New Mexico OE-27 DE- 73

Kansas, Syracuse, Duke and Ohio State look like teams capable of a title, and Villanova, and New Mexico look like teams to be cautious about when filling out  the brackets.

Coaches Get On Board With the T & 2

Finally ! Finally ! Finally ! Yes, I screamed that three times in the past week while watching   Rutgers upset Georgetown, the Celtics beat the Kings, and, most recently, Syracuse knock off Georgetown. Why was I so excited about an awful NJ school, an elderly team whose fans have awful accents, and a whiny coach who won’t play man to man ? Simple. In the final seconds, THEY ALL FOULED; UP THREE….and of course… THEY ALL WON .

I couldn’t believe it. I was elated. As the texts from T and 2 readers like James Alberino, John Strange, Jon Snediker and Bill Hassett rolled in throughout the week, I just kept smiling.  By the time Syracuse hacked up three, I had perfected the Judd Nelson-Breakfast Club fist pump.

Clearly, coaches are coming around on what I find to be the simplest decision in sports. Based on the easy logic that it’s harder for your opponent to : hit the first free throw, miss the second, get the rebound, and then score; than it is to simply hit a three pointer. Hats off to Fred Hill, Doc Rivers, and Jim “whine about expansion even though he’s headed for a #1 seed this year” Boeheim for showing some logic. Now we’re waiting for John Thompson III, who just watched the theory burn him, not once but twice, to start hacking late.

Texas Basketball a Season Long Roller Coaster Ride

Rick Barnes must be pretty confused trying to figure out what exactly is going on with his team. After a 17-0 start, the Longhorns are 3-6 in there last nine; dropping to 6-5 in Big 12 play. While Barnes is probably trying to convince himself it’s just a rough patch for a talented team, he may want to look a little closer at exactly what his squad has done this year…which, by my account, isn’t much.

Texas is very talented and has a clear superstar in Damion James so, there’s no question
as to whether they have the talent to play with the best, its just a matter of actually beating the best. However, the Longhorns have struggled to do that this year. Barnes’ squad has impressive wins over #11 Michigan State, #21 Pittsburgh and #23 Texas A&M but losses to #7 Kansas State, UCONN, #22 Baylor, #1 Kansas, and Missouri; proving that the Longhorns are not an elite team, which is what everyone in the country wants to be heading into March.
Trips to A&M and Baylor, with a fine showing in the Big 12 Tourney may be what James and company need to change their elite status, but don’t expect it. The T and 2 is expecting to cross Texas off with a second round upset in the Big Dance.

Who Are The Elite Teams In NCAA Basketball?

In order of most expected to win a title by the T and 2 : Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, West Virginia, Duke, Villanova, Kansas State, and Gonzaga. It’s an eight team race, and if you’re
wondering why Purdue is not on the list, look no further than the fact that they play in the snail’s pace Big Ten. Ohio State and future pro Evan Turner may be the only team who can change that belief but, until now, we’re sticking with those eight, with Kansas and Kentucky as clear favorites to meet in the final.

Bracket Busters Take Center Stage

This weekend is a time for hoopsters to educate themselves. ESPN is promoting its Bracket Buster weekend, which gives fans a chance to get an early look at teams you’ll be thankful you watched once March rolls around. Some of the games and teams you need to see : 
Friday- Old Dominion (21-7) at Northern Iowa (23-3), Cornell (21-4) at Harvard (17-5)
Saturday: Siena (22-5) at Butler (24-4), Morgan State(20-8) at Murray State (25-3) 4 PM,
UTEP (19-5) at Tulsa (19-7) (CBS-CS) 11:59 PM, Wichita State (22-6) at Utah State (21-6 )(ESPN2).

The T and 2 is most intrigued by Northern Iowa (currently a 7 seed in Bracketology) Butler (6 seed in Bracketology) and Murray State (12 seed in Bracketology). Questions to ask yourself while watching : Is Northern Iowa good enough to be knock off an overrated two seed in the second round ? Is Butler as good as it current winning streak indicates ? Can Murray State pull off the virtually annual “12/5″ upset ?

Time for These ACC Basketball Fans to Cross Their Fingers

Duke : Good news Blue Devils faithful , just five more games and Duke has officially survived February, a month that’s haunted them in recent years.

Maryland : At 18-7 (8-3) and one of Joe Lunardi’s last four teams in the tourney things look solid for the Terps. The final 5 vs Georgia Tech, Clemson, @ Virginia Tech, Duke, and @ Virginia will be the deciding factor. T and 2 estimates that a 3-2 or 4-1 stretch will cement them as tourney worthy, anything less and it’s time for James Lopez and fans to begin worrying…or moping… whichever you prefer.

Virginia Tech : Currently 21-4 (8-3) the Hokies are currently seeded as a #11.  Eleven?!  Why ? Very simply, a non-conference, strength of schedule rated a dismal 332nd by kenpom.com . VT will need to grab an impressive win(or wins) over Duke,Georgia Tech or Maryland down the stretch or it will watch it’s seed fall even further. Don’t feel too sorry for them though, as this is the team that scheduled such “powerhouses” as Charleston Southern, Maryland- Baltimore County, and Longwood in a three game stretch around the holidays. Clearly “gift” wins.

Just three weeks until Selection Sunday….a national holiday here at the T and 2.

Rivalry Week Signals Shift of Focus For Sports Fans

For all you football fanatics out there,  make sure you savor the Super Bowl, because as of this morning, it’s time to focus on hoops.  Despite the endless analysis, highlights and “breakdown” sessions  ESPN may have shoved down your throat last week, you should be beside yourself about the slew of college basketball games coming up over the next seven days. Rivalry Week, as it’s become known, is easily the best single week of the regular season. It’s like the best appetizer on the menu. You make sure you order it. Things start on tonight on ESPN’s  Big Monday when Kansas(1)  travels to Texas (10) and Villanova (2) travels to West Virginia(6).

Kansas, in my opinion, is the best team in the country right now.  Granted, they won in OT last week at Kansas State on the heels of an absurd decision by Wildcats’ head coach Frank Martin; (with just a few seconds difference between the shot clock and game clock, Martin chose not to foul Kansas, instead letting the possession play out), and they barely beat the Colorado “praying for the NIT” Buffaloes by six in overtime.  While these wins aren’t pretty…they are wins, and they are wins that will be similar to how Bill Self’s squad will need to win in March;  wins where you get the one stop you need at the end of the game, or a win where you don’t play well but gut it out.  This factor has now become the icing on the cake as to why I think Kansas will be champions.  They have the skill (Collins, Henry, Aldrich),  the coach (Self) and the X factor: Efficiency.  Another gutty win vs Texas would only cement the fact that they have the final piece of the puzzle, a will to dominate  an opponent when it matters most. Look for Kansas,  who still has to win a trap game vs Nebraska on Saturday,  to trump Texas as they continue to separate themselves from the pack.

The Pick:Rock Chalk Jayhawk

#6 West Virginia vs. #2 ‘Nova- The best way to describe West Virginia is to think of an Adam Sandler movie after 2002. You know he’s always been great in the past, and the trailer for the new flick looks decent, but you know there’s a possibility to be completely let down. (i.e. 50 First Dates, Longest Yard, Funny People).  Enter Bob “sweat suits on the sidelines” Huggins and West Virginia.  The Mountaineers are 18-3 (7-2), with losses to Big Ten power # 7 Purdue, a hiccup to 16-7 Notre Dame, and a 1 point loss to #4 22-1 Syracuse. WVU also gets the T and 2 love because they rank at 4 and 24 in O and D efficiency respectively. Now while West Virginia has some impressive numbers, the amount of quality wins WVU has is what alarms us. Yes, the Mounties did beat #18 Ohio State, and 16-6 Texas Tech isn’t shabby, but they have just one quality Big East win(Pitt).  WVU begins a brutal stretch on Monday vs Nova, and still has a trip to Pitt, Georgetown and a trip to Nova on the schedule. It will be these four games where we find out how legit the Mountaineers really are. An 0-4 skid and you can dismiss them as a Final Four team, a 4-0 mark means we’d better watch. My prediction is 3-1, starting with a win on Monday.  Youngster Daryl “Truck” Bryant will have his hands full defensively with Scottie Reynolds, but the eyes of Devin Ebanks and Kevin Jones should light up against Nova’s “inferior interior” duo of Antonio Pena and Taylor King.  Simple rule for WVU: hold Reynolds to less then 20, feed the post and you’ll likely hear the student section singing  “…take me home country roads” when the game is over. I truly believe WVU is the team to exceed all expectations right now, starting Monday…that’s if their fans can stop throwing things on the court.

The pick: WVU

Tuesday continues with #7 Purdue vs #5 Michigan State. – Kalin Lucas missed Saturday’s tilt vs Illinois and is questionable for the showdown with Purdue. With Izzo’s squad missing Lucas’ 15.6 ppg, look for E’Twaun Moore to have a field day and surging Purdue to capitalize. The Boilermakers have won six in a row after dropping three to Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Northwestern in mid January. It should be noted that because these teams play in the “put you to sleep it’s such slowly paced” Big Ten, the first team to 50 points might win.

Pick: Purdue

Wednesday is The Game. Duke vs Carolina.  As a Duke fan, it’s a holiday for me.  Look forward to it all year.  This year would make a naïve Duke fan extremely happy given the fact that Carolina is struggling to win anything recently.  The Tar Heels have fallen to a dismal 2-5 in the “not as tough as people think really is this year “ ACC, and 13-9 on the year. Things are so bad, Joe Lunardi is predicting Roy Williams is NIT bound. While hearing things like this should make Duke fans giddy, “Crazies” know that Duke is a Jeckyl and Hyde team in February.  Thursday’s thrashing of #19 Georgia Tech (pardon me Counting Crowes) “gives reason to believe” that Duke has finally turned a corner. However, this is Duke-Carolina, and anything can happen.  A win over a top ten rival is just what UNC needs to boost its resume. I’m hoping that’s not the case. Look for Scheyer and Singler to stroke it early and often.

The Pick : Duke

Saturday #14 Tennessee vs #3 Kentucky- Very simple. This is where the rest of the nation finds out what I already know. Tennessee is not as good as people think. Yes, Bruce Pearl did beat John “no Final Fours” Calipari two years ago when Memphis was undefeated, yes Tennessee took down Kansas this year, and Yes Tennessee has decent talent, but in no way shape or form do I see them winning Saturday night.

The pick: Kentucky in a rout, and inside twelve minutes left the announcers start talking about John Wall’s potential “at the next level”.   Are they not allowed to say “NBA”?

Notre Dame’s horrific losses to Rutgers and Loyola Marymount may have been the final straw to end the Irish NCAA hopes this year, but don’t blame Luke Harangody for not trying to work a miracle. The workhorse scored 37 and grabbed 14 boards in a win Thursday vs Cincy. The senior is averaging 24.2 ppg and 9.7 rpg.  It may be a good thing that the nation has quietly forgotten about “Gody”, because he seems to be holding a grudge and it’s helping the squad.

Bigger Not Better in NCAA Tournament

Is it just me or is anyone else rooting for Syracuse to land a #1 seed then lose to a #16 because Jim Boehiem keeps advocating a 96 team tournament ?

Big East Basketball Still On Top

Still wondering which conference is the toughest in America?   Joe Lunardi’s most recent Bracketology has seven Big East Teams getting bids, and three listed as “first four out”. One conference- 10 of the best 68 teams in the country. Good luck coaches.

Kentucky Basketball Falls From Its perch.  Who’s Next?

The 75-76’ Indiana Hoosiers can breathe a little easier now that Kentucky, the last remaining unbeaten team this season, has suffered it’s first loss to South Carolina.  Led by an array of tough, clutch, and “how the hell did he hit that” shots from Devan Downey, the Gamecocks made Kentucky’s stay atop the polls very short.

The recent upset of John (“ never actually been to a Final Four”) Calipari, John (“one and done”) Wall and Kentucky as well as the memories of Mario Chalmers trey to beat an undefeated Memphis in 08’ show that even the best of the best can take a loss.  Which makes hoopsters wonder: Will there ever be another undefeated champion ?

Devan Downey dropped thirty in the 68-62 upset, and put himself on the map as one of the nation’s best scorers; although Gamecock faithful will be quick to tell you that he’s no fluke.  The Chester, S.C. native spurned his home state by electing to attend Cincinnati as a freshman. After posting 11.9 ppg in his freshman year,  Downey decided to come home, and it’s been all good since.  After sitting out the ’06-’07 season, Downey’s scored 18.4 ppg (07-08),and 19.8(08-09).  He’s even better this season as Downey’s 22.4 ppg leads the SEC.  With a scorer like this, and a decent record, 12-8 (3-3), The Gamecocks have a shot to be a dark horse in the SEC tournament. After all, they have shown they can play with (and beat) the best.

Now that no unbeatens remain,  who is the  frontrunner for a national title?  With such a crop of great teams atop the polls there may not be just one, but Kansas stands out. Bill Self’s crew is currently 19-1 with their only setback to #14 Tennessee. A January 30th trip to #13 Kansas State, and Feb 8th trip to #6 Texas could yield two wins that would give the Jayhawks the most impressive resume in the country. It should also be noted that Kansas currently ranks 2nd in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency and you know how much we like that.

Speaking of frontrunners… CBSSports.com’s Gary Parrish points out that the end of January is a great time to find out who will make the Final Four. Parrish stated that in the past five seasons, at least three of the Final Four teams (all four in ’08) have been in the Top Ten during the last week of January. Remember to refer back to this in March when filling out your sheets. Kentucky, Kansas, Villanova, Syracuse, Michigan State, Texas, Georgetown, Duke, West Virginia and Purdue are your current candidates.

College Basketball Powerhouses UConn and UNC Struggling

As smoothly as things went for North Carolina and Connecticut last year, they’ve been equally as bumpy this season.  UNC coasted through its schedule  to a championship, and UConn battled through a tough Big East to reach the Final Four.  However, 2010 is giving every indication that a repeat of each performance is a long shot….a real long shot.

The Tar Heels have dropped three straight, and four of their last five in plummeting to #23 in the polls.  Things got worse for Roy Williams and company last week  when it was reported that seven foot sophomore Tyler Zeller will miss 4-6 weeks with a foot injury.  Yes, the same Zeller who missed most of last season.  That Zeller may be injury prone has raised huge concern about his future in Chapel Hill.

Things aren’t going too well in Storrs these days, either, although the Huskies did take care of lowly St.John’s on Wednesday night with to end a three game conference skid.  Adding  to their problems was the news that  Head Coach Jim Calhoun  is taking an immediate medical leave of absence. UConn officials reported that Calhoun’s absence is not heart or cancer related and is not associated to any conditions he has dealt with in the past (Calhoun is a three time cancer survivor). The Huskies will have an up-hill battle the rest of the season without Calhoun on the sidelines, but the immediate future doesn’t look too bad.  After taking on Texas this Saturday,  they’ll have winnable games against Providence, Marquette, Louisville, and  the conference’s whipping boy, DePaul.   A string of four conference wins under interim coach George Blaney could be the key to get back on track for this struggling squad.   Look at this stretch as  a precursor of UConn’s fate the rest of the way.

Kentucky Basketball Stands Alone

Texas dropped from the ranks of the  unbeaten,  leaving only Kentucky, John “make a mess then quickly flee the scene” Calipari, and John “I will commit to the draft in March so don’t look for me in class the final two months” Wall  as the only remaining team with an unblemished record.  Isn’t it sweet that the ENTIRE nation can now bond to root for that first loss now?

UTEP Basketball Showing Strong Caracter

Remember this guy ?  Once highly touted as a program-changing, college superstar, future-pro coming out of high school, he spent his time at Louisville struggling with his weight and grades.  Things got so bad, he actually flirted with the idea of entering the NBA Draft until he realized he’d never get picked.  Despite his shortcomings, however, he’s become the best turnaround story of the college basketball season. If you guessed Derrick Caracter, give yourself a gold star.

The big man from Jersey has found himself at UTEP, after two awful years at Louisville finally ran their course.  Between weight issues, grades, and finding it nearly impossible to deal with Rick Pitino (the latter is becoming a common occurrence these days, isn’t it?), D.C.’s time at Lousiville was one to forget. Luckily for him, his career has rebounded. In better shape, minus his entourage, and obviously much happier, Caracter is averaging 13.6 ppg and 8.3 rpg for the 12-5 UTEP Miners. Most recently, Caracter was a catalyst in his team’s 72-67 win over Memphis with 14 points and 7 boards.

The Key to Winning Your NCAA Tournament Brackets

Here’s a stat to look at when filling out your March Madness sheets; Efficiency, specifically Offensive and Defensive Efficiency.  In a nutshell – Points scored and points allowed per 100 possessions. Why does it matter ?  Simply put… it has been one of ,(if not the), leading indicators of  NCAA champions.

Ken Pomeroy is a stat guru who spends hours determining these stats each season, and every year the eventual NCAA Champion can be determined by Pomeroy’s efficiency ratings.  Need Proof ?

’09 Champ – UNC- Off. Eff (1) Def.Eff (16)
’08 Champ-Kansas- Off. Eff (2) Def.Eff (1)
’07 Champ- Florida- Off. Eff (1) Def.Eff (12)
’06 Champ- Florida- Off.Eff (2) Def.Eff (5)

The fact is, that if you want to cut down the nets you must be as good defensively as you are offensively.  Here are 5 teams who rate high in both categories, and offer a big reason to believe in them come March : Kansas- OE (2) DE (3), Duke OE(1) DE(9), Wisconsin OE(16) DE(7), Syracuse OE(4) DE(16), Kansas State OE(14) DE(20).   However, be wary of : Villanova- OE(3) DE(80), Kentucky OE(12) DE(37), Gonzaga OE(25) DE(65).   The T&2 will revisit as March gets closer, but it’s never too early to start dissecting the brackets.

Groundhog Day for Duke Basketball

Well, just as it was hinted in the last  T&2, the Duke Blue Devils are in the historically “hell-ish” part of their schedule. Coach K and the boys fit played to form in losing 88-74 to North Carolina State.  An inexcusable loss given their  high expectations coming into the season.  Here’s a challenge for the boys in Cameron: change yourselves from “good team” to “title contender” over the next weeks.

Tilts @ Clemson, @ Georgetown, Georgia Tech  and @UNC are games where Duke can turn their season around.  A sweep of these 4 quality teams, along with games against mediocre Florida State and Boston College would put Duke at 21-3 and give them a stranglehold on the ACC.  If Duke can do this, they’ll have my faith again…until then, I’m expecting a disastrous stretch over the next month; ultimately leading to a quiet exit in March. It’s unfortunate, but this has become Duke’s trademark over the last few seasons.

Pitt Basketball In Good Hands

It seemed pretty clear entering this season that Pitt would be “rebuilding” after losing a veteran core of Levance Fields, Dejuan Blair, Sam Young, & Tyrell Biggs that was seconds away from the Final Four. It would be hard to blame the Panthers for a mediocre season after losing so many talented players; although it seems as if Jamie Dixon, 2009 Naismith Coach of the Year, had other ideas. Off to a 13-2 (3-0) start behind 17.2 PPG from sophomore Ashton Gibbs  and another 12.2 from junior Brad Wanamaker’s , the #20 Panthers are quietly becoming a force in the Big East, and the nation.

Recently seeded as high as four in ESPN’s Bracketology, the Panthers certainly have the resume to back it.  Aside from an inexplicable loss to 7-8 Indiana, Pitt’s only other misstep is to #1 Texas.

Tonight’s game at #15 UCONN could be the most important of the season thus far. A win over the Huskies would solidify them as an elite team in the nation’s toughest conference. Dixon’s crew has made a case to put them in that discussion with a road win over then #5 Syracuse, but taking down another Top 25 conference foe would end any doubts that they are for real. Don’t think the experienced Pitt leader doesn’t know how much this win would mean for his team in the long run. Look for a tough battle between Ashton Gibbs and Kemba Walker in Storrs tonight.

Something to think about if Pitt does win tonight, though, is whether it’s out of the question to name Jamie Dixon Coach of The Year so far .  How many coaches could lose so much talent from an Elite Eight team, and be 14-2 and 4-0 in the Big East ? So far, just one.  Jamie Dixon.

Time for Purdue Basketball To Sink Or Swim

While Pitt was expected to struggle this season, Purdue was touted as a team on the rise. Seems as if the Boilmakers are reading their own press clippings, as they’ve stumbled to a 2-2 start in Big Ten Conference play. Back to back losses toWisconsin, and Ohio State put Matt Painter’s team in an interesting situation as they travel to overachieving 13-2 Northwestern and an Illinois squad currently sitting atop the conference .   We’ll know soon enough if Purdue is a contender or pretender based on the next two contests.

T&Two NCAA Bracket Busters to Watch

Northern Iowa 15-1 (Missouri Valley) – The veteran team already has a win over pre season top 25 Siena.

Louisiana Tech (16-1) (Western Athletic) – 4-0 in conference play, and wins over Houston and Nevada as resume boosters.

Cornell (14-3) (Ivy)- A recent five point loss at Kansas put them on the national radar. Wins over St. John’s, Davidson, Alabama, LaSalle, and UMass show they’re capable of excelling against the  big conferences.

Crucial Stretch For Duke Basketball

Duke enters a critical section of its schedule that could go a long way to deciding if  the Blue Devils can end their five year stretch without a  Final Four appearances . The annual mid-January/early February trek through the ACC has literally been Hell for the Devils. Taking a look at recent years : In 2009-, they were 18-1 on  Jan 28th.  A loss to Wake Forest started a skid that saw  four  losses in a six game span  through Feb. 15th.  The 2007 season found Coach K’s boys at 18-3 before a Feb 1st home loss to Virginia started a four game skein.  Duke went 4-8 from that point to finish the season, including first round losses in both the  ACC and NCAA tourneys.

Coach K has been quick to remind Blue Devil faithful that this year’s team is much older, and bigger than teams of the past. It will be seen very shortly if the 13-2 Dukies will use their age and experience during a stretch of games including Wake Forest, Clemson, and Georgetown in the next few week

Big Fish in a Small Pond

Hats off to Appalachian State’s Donald Sims, who torched Davidson for 44 points last week.

Games to Watch This Week

Wednesday – Pitt @ UCONN- Typical Big East dogfight. Don’t rule out anything amazing…not even  six overtimes.
Thursday- Cal @ Washington State-Preseason top ten Cal is quickly slipping, and needs a win to resurrect its tourney hopes.

Saturday – Syracuse @ West Virginia.  Georgia Tech vs North Carolina.

Head Scratcher of the Week

Got an email from Chris Beermann that informed me that he recently attended a COLLEGE game, where a coach :

• -Asked for a timeout while the other team was dribbling  the ball
• -Asked the ref “if he could have the foul on #11”, instead of  his leading scorer who had just picked up his third personal foul.

It’s not surprising that Chris also informed me that the coach’s team lost.

Back by popular demand, Gil Lock of Ryno Rife Sports Handicappers ventures out of his collegiate comfort zone to bring you his opinions on this weekend’s divisional round.  Those that followed Rife With Opinions during the college football season remember that Gil came under a bit of fire as he struggled for much of the campaign.  He finished with a strong bowl season, however, and is willing to share his thoughts on how this weekend’s NFL playoff games will unfold.  Here we go.

New Orleans Saints – Arizona Cardinals Under 57

(Saturday 4:30 EST-FOX) Classic contrarian pick here, with a little logic thrown in for good measure.  Drew Brees hasn’t played for real in almost a month.  He may take a quarter or so to get going while I don’t think the Cardinals will have as much success once New Orleans gets a look at the Green Bay game film.

Indianapolis Colts – 6 1/2 over Baltimore Ravens

(Saturday 8:00 EST-CBS) The Colts have put themselves squarely behind the eight ball by forfeiting their last two games.  If they don’t win it all, they’ll never hear the end of it. Baltimore’s secondary isn’t what it used to be, even at full strength, let alone with Ed Reed nursing a sore groin.  Peyton Manning should devour the Ravens’ blitzes while Joe Flacco struggles to keep up.

Dallas Cowboys + 2 1/2 over Minnesota Vikings

(Sunday 1:00 EST-FOX) This one will break the heart of my good friend F-r-a-n-k Tufano, but I don’t see the Vikings recovering from their stumbling finish.  Dallas may be the hottest team in football right now and absolutely has the better QB.  Look for a big day from Jason Witten.

New York Jets +7 1/2 over San Diego Chargers

(Sunday 4:30 EST-CBS) Now, before Fireman Ed offers to take me out to dinner, let me say that San Diego wins this one.  I just don’t think they have the firepower to run away and hide from the Jets’ defense.  The Chargers incredibly tall receivers will force the Jets into adjustments that should open up the running game for San Diego.

New York Jets Both Lucky and Good

The Jets went into Cincinnati last Saturday having spent as much time defending their Wild Card position as they had preparing for the game, itself.  Blasted for having punched their ticket through the generosity of the Bengals and Indianapolis Colts; two teams with nothing to play for that had virtually rolled over and played dead for Gang Green in the season’s final two games, the Jets took the field with a little something more at stake than just a playoff game.  They wanted to prove they belonged.

And prove it they did, behind Mark Sanchez’s best contest of the season.  They sent the Bengals home for the winter in a performance that, while not as dominating as the previous week’s, saw them control every facet of the game from start to finish.  Head Coach Rex Ryan had raised more than a few eyebrows with some of his pre game statements; like calling his Jets the Super Bowl favorites, but his charges made him look like a prophet, for the first round at least, and have some thinking that maybe Ryan is crazy like a fox.

While the Jets are still the longest of long shots, there is a budding sense among players and fans alike that something special could actually happen.  Cursed for most of their existence by some of the most excruciating losses and disappointments the NFL has seen, these Jets have actually had the breaks go their way over the last month.  Their late season matchups with Indy and Cincy could not have been better timed, the myriad of teams that needed to lose in order for the Jets to advance did just that, there could not have been a better first round matchup than the one they drew with the Bengals and, finally, Baltimore’s rout of New England brought a second round tilt with San Diego; a daunting foe, indeed, but a far more favorable opponent than Peyton Manning and the Colts.  Are these guys really the Jets?

The one thing Big Rexy and his boys need to guard against, however, is the idea that they’re now playing with house money; as if last week’s win validated a successful season and whatever happens next doesn’t matter.  While each of those points is true, to a degree, the NFL offers a very small window for teams chasing a title.  No matter how young, no matter how talented, franchises can never be sure how many opportunities they’ll get for championship glory.  The Jets should know this better than any as their Super Bowl drought is longer than every team but the Detroit Lions and is marred by missed field goals, snapped Achilles tendons and muddy fields.  Ryan has given every indication that he’ll keep his foot on the gas pedal and his team’s confidence seems to be growing because of it.  Now, let’s see how much of the newfound good fortune they can transport to San Diego.

Open Mouth, Insert Foot

In the aftermath of the Jets’ first round victory came the post game comments of SNY commentator Adam Schein and WFAN host Mike Francesa.  Schein, on the SNY post game show Saturday night, came down very hard on punter Steve Weatherford, who was held out of the game due to illness, according to the team.  Schein, who gives no impression of ever having worn a football helmet, questioned Weatherford’s character; stating that the illness had better be serious.  The Jets would later reveal that Weatherford had been diagnosed with an irregular heartbeat, something he’ll need to have surgically corrected in the off season.

That revelation did nothing to dissuade Francesa, who went down the same path Sunday morning, only to be corrected by a colleague.  That he was unaware that the punter’s condition had been made public the night before is not surprising as his indifference is exceeded only by his arrogance.  Each of these gas bags missed what was obvious to most: that since Weatherford was, in fact, on the sideline and in uniform, his condition must have been very serious for the Jets to hold him out of the game.  But, hey, why let the facts get in the way of sounding like a big, tough ballplayer?

NCAA Basketball Shill Vitale Loses Credibility

After thirty years, it’s time for ESPN’s lead hypocrite, Dick Vitale, to pack up his self-proclaimed “one eyed ziggy” act and go away forever.  While it’s always been difficult to stomach the superfluous nonsense he spews during his network’s broadcasts, he now regularly ignores and, in fact, rewrites the history of the coaches and programs whose fannies he chooses to smooch.

During Tuesday’s matchup of Florida and Kentucky, Vitale went into a rant about Mark McGwire, repeating what he’d said that morning on “Mike and Mike”.  He used the term “cheater” numerous times, referring to how sick he was of the steroid mess in baseball and how he sought refuge by talking up the game between the Wildcats and Gators.  A game that, incidentally, featured one of the college game’s more infamous cheaters, John Calipari, who’d been identified as such just weeks before by Vitale’s ESPN colleague, Bob Knight.  Not surprisingly, Vitale chose to ignore the issue. Not only was much of the telecast filled with Vitale’s praise for Calipari’s coaching ability, a graphic soon popped up naming the Kentucky coach as Vitale’s selection as Coach of the Year through this point in the season.  Finally, he mentioned that Calipari is attempting to become only the second coach to take three teams to the Final Four.  A complete rewriting of the facts, actually, as both of Calipari’s previous trips to the Championship round with UMass and Memphis have been vacated due to NCAA infractions.  According to the NCAA’s own records, Calipari’s never been to a Final Four.  I guess Vitale didn’t get the news.  Regardless, until he’s told by ESPN to take his ball and go home; something that, unfortunately, doesn’t seem to be imminent, any game that he works will be an extremely difficult and annoying listen.

New Jersey Devils Star Toils in Virtual Anonymity

If Devils’ goalie  Martin Brodeur  had been as dominant over the course of his career in any other sport or for any other New York area team, there’d already be a statue of him standing in front of a stadium.

New York Knicks Haunted in Oklahoma

During their two day stay in Oklahoma City, New York Knicks forwards Eddy Curry and Jared Jefferies complained that they were unable to sleep due to the fact that their hotel, The Skirvin, is haunted by ghosts.   I’ll leave you to your own punchlines.

Mark McGwire’s Weak Apology Does Settle One Score

Why would we have expected anything different from Mark McGwire?  Why would we think that, unlike all of the other steroid cheats who have come forward, sort of, that he’d be the one to completely open up about his own use?  Sorry, wasn’t going to happen.  Despite the earnest attempts of MLB Network’s Bob Costas to guide him to the full disclosure necessary for forgiveness, McGwire resisted throughout.  As a result, he looked like someone who came forward only because it was a requirement for his employment with the St. Louis Cardinals.  However, despite the fact that we learned very little that we didn’t already suspect, McGwire inadvertently settled one major debate about himself.

Forget his ridiculous assertions that the steroids were low dosage, that they did nothing to improve his performance or that he always wanted to come forward about his use of PED’s. It’s all nonsense.  Focus, instead, on his admission that, due to his frustration with chronic injury, he decided against retirement and started using steroids in 1996 to help him overcome his physical woes and get back on the field. By that very statement, he is also confirming that in no way does he deserve to be considered for the Hall of Fame.

Prior to the ’96 season, McGwire had posted 220 HR and 657 RBI over his first ten seasons; a far cry from consideration for the Hall.  He had appeared in just 74 games over the previous two seasons, prompting his thoughts of retirement.  In 1996, however, McGwire embarked on a four year slugfest that saw him launch an inhuman 245 home runs. So, if we connect the dots, what McGwire actually told Costas was that, had it not been for steroids, he’d have retired with the 220 dingers that would have left him off of every voter’s ballot.

Baseball is a game in which cheating has long been revered.  Hitters cork their bats while teams grow the grass high to aid slow infielders and water down the dirt to foil basestealers.  The 1951 Giants won a pennant aided by an employee in the scoreboard stealing the other team’s signs, journeyman pitcher Mike Scott won a Cy Young by scuffing the ball and spitballer Gaylord Perry has a plaque in Cooperstown.  Oddly, fans and players alike look at these indiscretions with a kind of twisted admiration.  To that end, baseball got exactly what it asked for with these steroid cheats.  I just wish they’d have a little more respect for our intelligence when they come forward and not hand us the ridiculous crap that we saw from McGwire on Monday.